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Decisive
by Chip Heath • 2013
Decisions fail in four predictable ways. A process fixes them, starting with one question.
3.96
18k+
Decisive Summary
Decisive 97%
Decisions fail in four predictable ways. A process fixes them, starting with one question.
by Chip Heath 2013
3.96
18k+ ratings
Perfectly Confident
by Don A. Moore • 2020
Confidence is a measurement problem: not how sure you feel, but how wrong you might be.
3.67
315
Perfectly Confident Summary
Perfectly Confident 96%
Confidence is a measurement problem: not how sure you feel, but how wrong you might be.
by Don A. Moore 2020
3.67
315 ratings
Never Go With Your Gut
by Gleb Tsipursky • 2019
Your gut is for survival, not strategy. Override the biases that cost 10 percent of revenue.
4.12
259
Never Go With Your Gut Summary
Never Go With Your Gut 96%
Your gut is for survival, not strategy. Override the biases that cost 10 percent of revenue.
by Gleb Tsipursky 2019
4.12
259 ratings
Smart Choices
by John S. Hammond • 1998
The most expensive mistakes happen before you even name the problem. A method for catching them.
4.02
7k+
Smart Choices Summary
Smart Choices 96%
The most expensive mistakes happen before you even name the problem. A method for catching them.
by John S. Hammond 1998
4.02
7k+ ratings
Ergodicity
by Luca Dellanna • 2020
Why a bet that works for a hundred people destroys the one who repeats it.
4.05
314
Ergodicity Summary
Ergodicity 96%
Why a bet that works for a hundred people destroys the one who repeats it.
by Luca Dellanna 2020
4.05
314 ratings
Maxims for Thinking Analytically
by Dan Levy • 2021
Extreme cases and simple division: Harvard legend's toolkit for sharper thinking amid uncertainty.
3.92
583
Maxims for Thinking Analytically Summary
Maxims for Thinking Analytically 96%
Extreme cases and simple division: Harvard legend's toolkit for sharper thinking amid uncertainty.
by Dan Levy 2021
3.92
583 ratings
Farsighted
by Steven Johnson • 2018
Why our biggest choices flunk the pro/con list, and what works: mapping, rehearsal, fiction.
3.55
2k+
Farsighted Summary
Farsighted 96%
Why our biggest choices flunk the pro/con list, and what works: mapping, rehearsal, fiction.
by Steven Johnson 2018
3.55
2k+ ratings
The Gray Rhino
by Michele Wucker • 2016
Obvious, predictable threats destroy more than surprises do, and we ignore them anyway.
3.57
391
The Gray Rhino Summary
The Gray Rhino 96%
Obvious, predictable threats destroy more than surprises do, and we ignore them anyway.
by Michele Wucker 2016
3.57
391 ratings
100 mental models
by Wisdom Theory
Why a hundred borrowed concepts from physics, economics, and psychology beat expertise alone.
4.00
105
100 mental models Summary
100 mental models 96%
Why a hundred borrowed concepts from physics, economics, and psychology beat expertise alone.
by Wisdom Theory
4.00
105 ratings
Superforecasting
by Philip E. Tetlock • 2015
30% more accurate than CIA analysts: the trainable habits that predict the future.
4.08
22k+
Superforecasting Summary
Superforecasting 96%
30% more accurate than CIA analysts: the trainable habits that predict the future.
by Philip E. Tetlock 2015
4.08
22k+ ratings
The Power of Noticing
by Max H. Bazerman • 2014
The worst failures were visible beforehand; the missing ingredient was never data but attention.
3.40
437
The Power of Noticing Summary
The Power of Noticing 96%
The worst failures were visible beforehand; the missing ingredient was never data but attention.
by Max H. Bazerman 2014
3.40
437 ratings
An Economist Walks into a Brothel
by Allison Schrager • 2019
An economist sizes up risk in brothels, poker rooms, and monster waves, then hands us the rules.
3.56
2k+
An Economist Walks into a Brothel Summary
An Economist Walks into a Brothel 95%
An economist sizes up risk in brothels, poker rooms, and monster waves, then hands us the rules.
by Allison Schrager 2019
3.56
2k+ ratings
Risk
by Stanley McChrystal • 2021
In 1983, one man's doubt stopped a nuclear war. The lesson for your organization's risk systems.
3.64
799
Risk Summary
Risk 95%
In 1983, one man's doubt stopped a nuclear war. The lesson for your organization's risk systems.
by Stanley McChrystal 2021
3.64
799 ratings
Think Twice
by Michael J. Mauboussin • 2009
Smart people fail at decisions because the mind's ancient shortcuts misfire in modern complexity.
3.93
1k+
Think Twice Summary
Think Twice 95%
Smart people fail at decisions because the mind's ancient shortcuts misfire in modern complexity.
by Michael J. Mauboussin 2009
3.93
1k+ ratings
Mental Models
by Peter Hollins • 2019
Mental models to decide faster, regret less, and stop mistaking urgency for importance.
3.97
956
Mental Models Summary
Mental Models 95%
Mental models to decide faster, regret less, and stop mistaking urgency for importance.
by Peter Hollins 2019
3.97
956 ratings
HBR Guide to Critical Thinking
by Harvard Business Review • 2023
Why assumptions trap you, and how to escape before you decide: HBR guide to clearer thinking.
3.92
198
HBR Guide to Critical Thinking Summary
HBR Guide to Critical Thinking 95%
Why assumptions trap you, and how to escape before you decide: HBR guide to clearer thinking.
by Harvard Business Review 2023
3.92
198 ratings
Risk Intelligence
by Dylan Evans • 2012
Your probability estimates are worse than you think. It's trainable, and the payoff is real.
3.71
256
Risk Intelligence Summary
Risk Intelligence 95%
Your probability estimates are worse than you think. It's trainable, and the payoff is real.
by Dylan Evans 2012
3.71
256 ratings
The Flaw of Averages
by Sam L. Savage • 2009
A single average can sink your plan. The missing skill: thinking in distributions.
3.86
574
The Flaw of Averages Summary
The Flaw of Averages 95%
A single average can sink your plan. The missing skill: thinking in distributions.
by Sam L. Savage 2009
3.86
574 ratings
Thinking and Deciding
by Jonathan Baron • 2007
A psychologist's guide to mental shortcuts that fail, and the rules that repair them.
4.06
320
Thinking and Deciding Summary
Thinking and Deciding 95%
A psychologist's guide to mental shortcuts that fail, and the rules that repair them.
by Jonathan Baron 2007
4.06
320 ratings
Winning Long-Term Games
by Luca Dellanna • 2024
Stop optimizing for speed. Build assets, make many bets, and design a life that cannot lose.
4.17
81
Winning Long-Term Games Summary
Winning Long-Term Games 95%
Stop optimizing for speed. Build assets, make many bets, and design a life that cannot lose.
by Luca Dellanna 2024
4.17
81 ratings
The Failure of Risk Management
by Douglas W. Hubbard • 2009
Standard risk management makes decisions worse than guessing. The fix is simpler than you think.
3.95
413
The Failure of Risk Management Summary
The Failure of Risk Management 95%
Standard risk management makes decisions worse than guessing. The fix is simpler than you think.
by Douglas W. Hubbard 2009
3.95
413 ratings
Risk Savvy
by Gerd Gigerenzer • 2013
Most real life is uncertainty, not risk. Simple decision rules beat complex models there.
4.01
2k+
Risk Savvy Summary
Risk Savvy 95%
Most real life is uncertainty, not risk. Simple decision rules beat complex models there.
by Gerd Gigerenzer 2013
4.01
2k+ ratings
The Laws of Trading
by Agustin Lebron • 2019
The rules that keep traders alive are the same rules that govern every decision you make.
4.03
426
The Laws of Trading Summary
The Laws of Trading 95%
The rules that keep traders alive are the same rules that govern every decision you make.
by Agustin Lebron 2019
4.03
426 ratings
Fooled by Randomness
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb • 2001
Ten thousand coin-flippers produce three hundred geniuses. The biographies write themselves.
4.08
72k+
Fooled by Randomness Summary
Fooled by Randomness 95%
Ten thousand coin-flippers produce three hundred geniuses. The biographies write themselves.
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb 2001
4.08
72k+ ratings
Principles
by Ray Dalio • 2017
A billionaire's operating system: write a rule for every mistake and let truth beat the boss.
4.10
69k+
Principles Summary
Principles 95%
A billionaire's operating system: write a rule for every mistake and let truth beat the boss.
by Ray Dalio 2017
4.10
69k+ ratings
The Art of Thinking In Systems
by Steven Schuster • 2018
Why your fixes backfire: the feedback loops, delays, and blind spots hiding in plain sight.
3.16
641
The Art of Thinking In Systems Summary
The Art of Thinking In Systems 95%
Why your fixes backfire: the feedback loops, delays, and blind spots hiding in plain sight.
by Steven Schuster 2018
3.16
641 ratings
On the Edge
by Nate Silver • 2024
One tribe calculates risk; one avoids it. This divide now shapes American life more than politics.
3.66
6k+
On the Edge Summary
On the Edge 95%
One tribe calculates risk; one avoids it. This divide now shapes American life more than politics.
by Nate Silver 2024
3.66
6k+ ratings
Uncharted
by Margaret Heffernan • 2020
Why the best leaders swap predictions for experiments, scenarios, and collective preparation.
3.64
458
Uncharted Summary
Uncharted 95%
Why the best leaders swap predictions for experiments, scenarios, and collective preparation.
by Margaret Heffernan 2020
3.64
458 ratings
The Great Mental Models, Volume 3
by Shane Parrish • 2024
Why extra effort eventually backfires, luck isn't random, and one weak link can undo everything.
4.26
195
The Great Mental Models, Volume 3 Summary
The Great Mental Models, Volume 3 95%
Why extra effort eventually backfires, luck isn't random, and one weak link can undo everything.
by Shane Parrish 2024
4.26
195 ratings
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
by Richards J. Heuer Jr. • 2005
CIA's textbook for outthinking your own limits: structured methods that catch what intuition misses.
4.27
1k+
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis Summary
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis 95%
CIA's textbook for outthinking your own limits: structured methods that catch what intuition misses.
by Richards J. Heuer Jr. 2005
4.27
1k+ ratings
The Art of Clear Thinking
by Hasard Lee • 2023
Five seconds of calm before every decision: what fighter pilots know about choosing under pressure.
4.17
2k+
The Art of Clear Thinking Summary
The Art of Clear Thinking 95%
Five seconds of calm before every decision: what fighter pilots know about choosing under pressure.
by Hasard Lee 2023
4.17
2k+ ratings
The Great Mental Models Volume 3
by Rhiannon Beaubien • 2021
The world runs on feedback loops and bottlenecks you never see. The models that expose them.
4.25
832
The Great Mental Models Volume 3 Summary
The Great Mental Models Volume 3 95%
The world runs on feedback loops and bottlenecks you never see. The models that expose them.
by Rhiannon Beaubien 2021
4.25
832 ratings
What's Your Problem?
by Thomas Wedell-Wedellsborg • 2020
Your problem-solving instinct is your biggest obstacle. A method for seeing the real problem first.
4.23
669
What's Your Problem? Summary
What's Your Problem? 95%
Your problem-solving instinct is your biggest obstacle. A method for seeing the real problem first.
by Thomas Wedell-Wedellsborg 2020
4.23
669 ratings
Tune In
by Nuala Walsh • 2024
Hear what your mind erases: a playbook to stop sabotaging the decisions that matter most.
4.30
122
Tune In Summary
Tune In 95%
Hear what your mind erases: a playbook to stop sabotaging the decisions that matter most.
by Nuala Walsh 2024
4.30
122 ratings
The Road Less Stupid
by Keith J. Cunningham • 2017
A thinking discipline that cuts the costly errors most leaders repeat.
4.32
2k+
The Road Less Stupid Summary
The Road Less Stupid 94%
A thinking discipline that cuts the costly errors most leaders repeat.
by Keith J. Cunningham 2017
4.32
2k+ ratings
All I Want To Know Is Where I'm Going To Die So I'll Never Go There
by Peter Bevelin • 2016
The Buffett-Munger playbook: avoid what fails, think for yourself, and wait for the right moment.
4.62
628
All I Want To Know Is Where I'm Going To Die So I'll Never Go There Summary
All I Want To Know Is Where I'm Going To Die So I'll Never Go There 94%
The Buffett-Munger playbook: avoid what fails, think for yourself, and wait for the right moment.
by Peter Bevelin 2016
4.62
628 ratings
Future Babble
by Dan Gardner • 2010
Confidence sells. Accuracy doesn't. Why the loudest experts are the worst forecasters.
3.79
737
Future Babble Summary
Future Babble 94%
Confidence sells. Accuracy doesn't. Why the loudest experts are the worst forecasters.
by Dan Gardner 2010
3.79
737 ratings
You're About to Make a Terrible Mistake
by Olivier Sibony • 2019
You can't think your way out of bias. Better decisions need better process, not better people.
4.05
720
You're About to Make a Terrible Mistake Summary
You're About to Make a Terrible Mistake 94%
You can't think your way out of bias. Better decisions need better process, not better people.
by Olivier Sibony 2019
4.05
720 ratings
The Success Equation
by Michael J. Mauboussin • 2012
The ratio of skill to luck shapes every outcome. Most people misread it and pay dearly.
3.94
2k+
The Success Equation Summary
The Success Equation 94%
The ratio of skill to luck shapes every outcome. Most people misread it and pay dearly.
by Michael J. Mauboussin 2012
3.94
2k+ ratings
Framers
by Kenneth Cukier • 2021
AI can't ask 'what if.' That single gap explains why humans remain irreplaceable.
3.53
568
Framers Summary
Framers 94%
AI can't ask 'what if.' That single gap explains why humans remain irreplaceable.
by Kenneth Cukier 2021
3.53
568 ratings
Poor Charlie's Almanack
by Peter D. Kaufman • 2022
Avoid stupidity, compound wisdom, and let incentives do the work: Charlie Munger's mental playbook.
4.33
418
Poor Charlie's Almanack Summary
Poor Charlie's Almanack 94%
Avoid stupidity, compound wisdom, and let incentives do the work: Charlie Munger's mental playbook.
by Peter D. Kaufman 2022
4.33
418 ratings
Thinking Fast and Slow in 30 Minutes - The Expert Guide to Daniel Kahneman's Critically Acclaimed Book
by The 30 Minute Expert Series • 2013
You jump to conclusions because you're wired to. Those jumps follow a script you can learn.
3.87
31
Thinking Fast and Slow in 30 Minutes - The Expert Guide to Daniel Kahneman's Critically Acclaimed Book Summary
Thinking Fast and Slow in 30 Minutes - The Expert Guide to Daniel Kahneman's Critically Acclaimed Book 94%
You jump to conclusions because you're wired to. Those jumps follow a script you can learn.
by The 30 Minute Expert Series 2013
3.87
31 ratings
Nonsense
by Jamie Holmes • 2015
Certainty is a trap. What not knowing does for creativity, smarter choices, and avoiding disaster.
3.61
1k+
Nonsense Summary
Nonsense 94%
Certainty is a trap. What not knowing does for creativity, smarter choices, and avoiding disaster.
by Jamie Holmes 2015
3.61
1k+ ratings
The Art of Critical Decision Making
by Michael A. Roberto • 2009
Data doesn't make decisions. Debate does. The process for designing the right argument in any room.
4.09
573
The Art of Critical Decision Making Summary
The Art of Critical Decision Making 94%
Data doesn't make decisions. Debate does. The process for designing the right argument in any room.
by Michael A. Roberto 2009
4.09
573 ratings
More Than You Know
by Michael J. Mauboussin • 2006
Markets follow the rules of ant colonies, poker games, and cognitive biases, not economic models.
4.07
2k+
More Than You Know Summary
More Than You Know 94%
Markets follow the rules of ant colonies, poker games, and cognitive biases, not economic models.
by Michael J. Mauboussin 2006
4.07
2k+ ratings
Streetlights and Shadows
by Gary Klein • 2009
Complex situations demand a different decision playbook. One built on recognition, not comparison.
4.28
321
Streetlights and Shadows Summary
Streetlights and Shadows 94%
Complex situations demand a different decision playbook. One built on recognition, not comparison.
by Gary Klein 2009
4.28
321 ratings
Against the Gods
by Peter L. Bernstein • 1996
The modern world began when humans stopped blaming the gods and started calculating the odds.
3.95
15k+
Against the Gods Summary
Against the Gods 94%
The modern world began when humans stopped blaming the gods and started calculating the odds.
by Peter L. Bernstein 1996
3.95
15k+ ratings
Chancing It
by Robert Matthews • 2017
How a formula from 17th-century gambling can tell you what any decision is worth.
3.81
227
Chancing It Summary
Chancing It 94%
How a formula from 17th-century gambling can tell you what any decision is worth.
by Robert Matthews 2017
3.81
227 ratings
How Not to Be Wrong
by Jordan Ellenberg • 2014
Your brain defaults to straight lines. Math reveals the curves that keep you from being wrong.
3.95
22k+
How Not to Be Wrong Summary
How Not to Be Wrong 94%
Your brain defaults to straight lines. Math reveals the curves that keep you from being wrong.
by Jordan Ellenberg 2014
3.95
22k+ ratings
Critical Thinking
by Richard Paul • 2000
Your reasoning carries invisible flaws. A system for auditing them and thinking with real clarity.
3.94
1k+
Critical Thinking Summary
Critical Thinking 94%
Your reasoning carries invisible flaws. A system for auditing them and thinking with real clarity.
by Richard Paul 2000
3.94
1k+ ratings
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