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SoBrief
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Perfectly Confident
by Don A. Moore • 2020
Confidence is a measurement problem: not how sure you feel, but how wrong you might be.
3.67
315
Perfectly Confident Summary
Perfectly Confident 97%
Confidence is a measurement problem: not how sure you feel, but how wrong you might be.
by Don A. Moore 2020
3.67
315 ratings
Future Babble
by Dan Gardner • 2010
Confidence sells. Accuracy doesn't. Why the loudest experts are the worst forecasters.
3.79
737
Future Babble Summary
Future Babble 97%
Confidence sells. Accuracy doesn't. Why the loudest experts are the worst forecasters.
by Dan Gardner 2010
3.79
737 ratings
Risk Intelligence
by Dylan Evans • 2012
Your probability estimates are worse than you think. It's trainable, and the payoff is real.
3.71
256
Risk Intelligence Summary
Risk Intelligence 97%
Your probability estimates are worse than you think. It's trainable, and the payoff is real.
by Dylan Evans 2012
3.71
256 ratings
The Success Equation
by Michael J. Mauboussin • 2012
The ratio of skill to luck shapes every outcome. Most people misread it and pay dearly.
3.94
2k+
The Success Equation Summary
The Success Equation 97%
The ratio of skill to luck shapes every outcome. Most people misread it and pay dearly.
by Michael J. Mauboussin 2012
3.94
2k+ ratings
Risk Savvy
by Gerd Gigerenzer • 2013
Most real life is uncertainty, not risk. Simple decision rules beat complex models there.
4.01
2k+
Risk Savvy Summary
Risk Savvy 96%
Most real life is uncertainty, not risk. Simple decision rules beat complex models there.
by Gerd Gigerenzer 2013
4.01
2k+ ratings
Never Go With Your Gut
by Gleb Tsipursky • 2019
Your gut is for survival, not strategy. Override the biases that cost 10 percent of revenue.
4.12
259
Never Go With Your Gut Summary
Never Go With Your Gut 96%
Your gut is for survival, not strategy. Override the biases that cost 10 percent of revenue.
by Gleb Tsipursky 2019
4.12
259 ratings
Fooled by Randomness
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb • 2001
Ten thousand coin-flippers produce three hundred geniuses. The biographies write themselves.
4.08
72k+
Fooled by Randomness Summary
Fooled by Randomness 96%
Ten thousand coin-flippers produce three hundred geniuses. The biographies write themselves.
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb 2001
4.08
72k+ ratings
Superforecasting
by Philip E. Tetlock • 2015
30% more accurate than CIA analysts: the trainable habits that predict the future.
4.08
22k+
Superforecasting Summary
Superforecasting 96%
30% more accurate than CIA analysts: the trainable habits that predict the future.
by Philip E. Tetlock 2015
4.08
22k+ ratings
An Economist Walks into a Brothel
by Allison Schrager • 2019
An economist sizes up risk in brothels, poker rooms, and monster waves, then hands us the rules.
3.56
2k+
An Economist Walks into a Brothel Summary
An Economist Walks into a Brothel 96%
An economist sizes up risk in brothels, poker rooms, and monster waves, then hands us the rules.
by Allison Schrager 2019
3.56
2k+ ratings
The Failure of Risk Management
by Douglas W. Hubbard • 2009
Standard risk management makes decisions worse than guessing. The fix is simpler than you think.
3.95
413
The Failure of Risk Management Summary
The Failure of Risk Management 96%
Standard risk management makes decisions worse than guessing. The fix is simpler than you think.
by Douglas W. Hubbard 2009
3.95
413 ratings
Irrationality
by Stuart Sutherland • 1992
Predictable mental errors everyone makes, from overconfidence to throwing good money after bad.
3.91
2k+
Irrationality Summary
Irrationality 96%
Predictable mental errors everyone makes, from overconfidence to throwing good money after bad.
by Stuart Sutherland 1992
3.91
2k+ ratings
Decisive
by Chip Heath • 2013
Decisions fail in four predictable ways. A process fixes them, starting with one question.
3.96
18k+
Decisive Summary
Decisive 96%
Decisions fail in four predictable ways. A process fixes them, starting with one question.
by Chip Heath 2013
3.96
18k+ ratings
Maxims for Thinking Analytically
by Dan Levy • 2021
Extreme cases and simple division: Harvard legend's toolkit for sharper thinking amid uncertainty.
3.92
583
Maxims for Thinking Analytically Summary
Maxims for Thinking Analytically 96%
Extreme cases and simple division: Harvard legend's toolkit for sharper thinking amid uncertainty.
by Dan Levy 2021
3.92
583 ratings
Ergodicity
by Luca Dellanna • 2020
Why a bet that works for a hundred people destroys the one who repeats it.
4.05
314
Ergodicity Summary
Ergodicity 96%
Why a bet that works for a hundred people destroys the one who repeats it.
by Luca Dellanna 2020
4.05
314 ratings
Smart Choices
by John S. Hammond • 1998
The most expensive mistakes happen before you even name the problem. A method for catching them.
4.02
7k+
Smart Choices Summary
Smart Choices 96%
The most expensive mistakes happen before you even name the problem. A method for catching them.
by John S. Hammond 1998
4.02
7k+ ratings
The Halo Effect
by Philip M. Rosenzweig • 2007
Celebrated business books share a fatal flaw: they mistake the glow of success for its cause.
3.89
6k+
The Halo Effect Summary
The Halo Effect 96%
Celebrated business books share a fatal flaw: they mistake the glow of success for its cause.
by Philip M. Rosenzweig 2007
3.89
6k+ ratings
The Power of Noticing
by Max H. Bazerman • 2014
The worst failures were visible beforehand; the missing ingredient was never data but attention.
3.40
437
The Power of Noticing Summary
The Power of Noticing 96%
The worst failures were visible beforehand; the missing ingredient was never data but attention.
by Max H. Bazerman 2014
3.40
437 ratings
How to Expect the Unexpected
by Kit Yates • 2023
Master the science of prediction: why your gut fails, and when the smartest forecast is none.
3.69
188
How to Expect the Unexpected Summary
How to Expect the Unexpected 96%
Master the science of prediction: why your gut fails, and when the smartest forecast is none.
by Kit Yates 2023
3.69
188 ratings
The Drunkard's Walk
by Leonard Mlodinow • 2008
Success isn't as earned as you think. Probability decides more outcomes than talent ever does.
3.95
25k+
The Drunkard's Walk Summary
The Drunkard's Walk 96%
Success isn't as earned as you think. Probability decides more outcomes than talent ever does.
by Leonard Mlodinow 2008
3.95
25k+ ratings
The Flaw of Averages
by Sam L. Savage • 2009
A single average can sink your plan. The missing skill: thinking in distributions.
3.86
574
The Flaw of Averages Summary
The Flaw of Averages 96%
A single average can sink your plan. The missing skill: thinking in distributions.
by Sam L. Savage 2009
3.86
574 ratings
The Laws of Trading
by Agustin Lebron • 2019
The rules that keep traders alive are the same rules that govern every decision you make.
4.03
426
The Laws of Trading Summary
The Laws of Trading 95%
The rules that keep traders alive are the same rules that govern every decision you make.
by Agustin Lebron 2019
4.03
426 ratings
The Yellow Pad
by Robert E. Rubin • 2023
A yellow pad and honest odds: the method that steered Goldman Sachs and the White House.
3.70
268
The Yellow Pad Summary
The Yellow Pad 95%
A yellow pad and honest odds: the method that steered Goldman Sachs and the White House.
by Robert E. Rubin 2023
3.70
268 ratings
Noise
by Daniel Kahneman • 2021
You know about bias. The bigger judgment error is noise: the random scatter no one is auditing.
3.67
17k+
Noise Summary
Noise 95%
You know about bias. The bigger judgment error is noise: the random scatter no one is auditing.
by Daniel Kahneman 2021
3.67
17k+ ratings
Thinking Fast and Slow in 30 Minutes - The Expert Guide to Daniel Kahneman's Critically Acclaimed Book
by The 30 Minute Expert Series • 2013
You jump to conclusions because you're wired to. Those jumps follow a script you can learn.
3.87
31
Thinking Fast and Slow in 30 Minutes - The Expert Guide to Daniel Kahneman's Critically Acclaimed Book Summary
Thinking Fast and Slow in 30 Minutes - The Expert Guide to Daniel Kahneman's Critically Acclaimed Book 95%
You jump to conclusions because you're wired to. Those jumps follow a script you can learn.
by The 30 Minute Expert Series 2013
3.87
31 ratings
Sway
by Ori Brafman • 2008
Seven invisible biases that make rational people overpay, overstay, and reject free money.
3.78
20k+
Sway Summary
Sway 95%
Seven invisible biases that make rational people overpay, overstay, and reject free money.
by Ori Brafman 2008
3.78
20k+ ratings
Tune In
by Nuala Walsh • 2024
Hear what your mind erases: a playbook to stop sabotaging the decisions that matter most.
4.30
122
Tune In Summary
Tune In 95%
Hear what your mind erases: a playbook to stop sabotaging the decisions that matter most.
by Nuala Walsh 2024
4.30
122 ratings
100 mental models
by Wisdom Theory
Why a hundred borrowed concepts from physics, economics, and psychology beat expertise alone.
4.00
105
100 mental models Summary
100 mental models 95%
Why a hundred borrowed concepts from physics, economics, and psychology beat expertise alone.
by Wisdom Theory
4.00
105 ratings
The Undoing Project
by Michael Lewis • 2016
Two men, one mind. The friendship that mapped the hidden flaws in every human judgment.
3.99
64k+
The Undoing Project Summary
The Undoing Project 95%
Two men, one mind. The friendship that mapped the hidden flaws in every human judgment.
by Michael Lewis 2016
3.99
64k+ ratings
Streetlights and Shadows
by Gary Klein • 2009
Complex situations demand a different decision playbook. One built on recognition, not comparison.
4.28
321
Streetlights and Shadows Summary
Streetlights and Shadows 95%
Complex situations demand a different decision playbook. One built on recognition, not comparison.
by Gary Klein 2009
4.28
321 ratings
HBR Guide to Critical Thinking
by Harvard Business Review • 2023
Why assumptions trap you, and how to escape before you decide: HBR guide to clearer thinking.
3.92
198
HBR Guide to Critical Thinking Summary
HBR Guide to Critical Thinking 95%
Why assumptions trap you, and how to escape before you decide: HBR guide to clearer thinking.
by Harvard Business Review 2023
3.92
198 ratings
A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market
by John Allen Paulos • 2003
The market's worst crashes aren't anomalies: they're built into the math most investors ignore.
3.46
823
A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market Summary
A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market 95%
The market's worst crashes aren't anomalies: they're built into the math most investors ignore.
by John Allen Paulos 2003
3.46
823 ratings
Why We Make Mistakes
by Joseph T. Hallinan • 2009
Your brain edits reality, rewrites your memories, and is certain you're above average.
3.91
9k+
Why We Make Mistakes Summary
Why We Make Mistakes 95%
Your brain edits reality, rewrites your memories, and is certain you're above average.
by Joseph T. Hallinan 2009
3.91
9k+ ratings
How to Make the World Add Up
by Tim Harford • 2020
Bad statistics weaponize your feelings. Ten rules for seeing what the numbers actually say.
4.12
8k+
How to Make the World Add Up Summary
How to Make the World Add Up 95%
Bad statistics weaponize your feelings. Ten rules for seeing what the numbers actually say.
by Tim Harford 2020
4.12
8k+ ratings
Rock Breaks Scissors
by William Poundstone • 2014
Why you can outguess anyone: the predictable mistakes we make when we try to be random.
3.50
772
Rock Breaks Scissors Summary
Rock Breaks Scissors 95%
Why you can outguess anyone: the predictable mistakes we make when we try to be random.
by William Poundstone 2014
3.50
772 ratings
How Not to Be Wrong
by Jordan Ellenberg • 2014
Your brain defaults to straight lines. Math reveals the curves that keep you from being wrong.
3.95
22k+
How Not to Be Wrong Summary
How Not to Be Wrong 95%
Your brain defaults to straight lines. Math reveals the curves that keep you from being wrong.
by Jordan Ellenberg 2014
3.95
22k+ ratings
More Than You Know
by Michael J. Mauboussin • 2006
Markets follow the rules of ant colonies, poker games, and cognitive biases, not economic models.
4.07
2k+
More Than You Know Summary
More Than You Know 95%
Markets follow the rules of ant colonies, poker games, and cognitive biases, not economic models.
by Michael J. Mauboussin 2006
4.07
2k+ ratings
Chancing It
by Robert Matthews • 2017
How a formula from 17th-century gambling can tell you what any decision is worth.
3.81
227
Chancing It Summary
Chancing It 95%
How a formula from 17th-century gambling can tell you what any decision is worth.
by Robert Matthews 2017
3.81
227 ratings
The Elements of Choice
by Eric J. Johnson • 2021
Your choices feel free. But someone arranged the options, and that arrangement is doing the work.
3.91
523
The Elements of Choice Summary
The Elements of Choice 95%
Your choices feel free. But someone arranged the options, and that arrangement is doing the work.
by Eric J. Johnson 2021
3.91
523 ratings
You're About to Make a Terrible Mistake
by Olivier Sibony • 2019
You can't think your way out of bias. Better decisions need better process, not better people.
4.05
720
You're About to Make a Terrible Mistake Summary
You're About to Make a Terrible Mistake 95%
You can't think your way out of bias. Better decisions need better process, not better people.
by Olivier Sibony 2019
4.05
720 ratings
Framers
by Kenneth Cukier • 2021
AI can't ask 'what if.' That single gap explains why humans remain irreplaceable.
3.53
568
Framers Summary
Framers 95%
AI can't ask 'what if.' That single gap explains why humans remain irreplaceable.
by Kenneth Cukier 2021
3.53
568 ratings
The Science of Organizational Change
by Paul Gibbons • 2019
Half of corporate change fails, and the guru-industrial complex is covering up the real reasons.
4.02
87
The Science of Organizational Change Summary
The Science of Organizational Change 95%
Half of corporate change fails, and the guru-industrial complex is covering up the real reasons.
by Paul Gibbons 2019
4.02
87 ratings
Against the Gods
by Peter L. Bernstein • 1996
The modern world began when humans stopped blaming the gods and started calculating the odds.
3.95
15k+
Against the Gods Summary
Against the Gods 95%
The modern world began when humans stopped blaming the gods and started calculating the odds.
by Peter L. Bernstein 1996
3.95
15k+ ratings
The Biggest Bluff
by Maria Konnikova • 2020
No card skills, a legendary coach: how a journalist reached a pro poker final table.
4.07
16k+
The Biggest Bluff Summary
The Biggest Bluff 95%
No card skills, a legendary coach: how a journalist reached a pro poker final table.
by Maria Konnikova 2020
4.07
16k+ ratings
Farsighted
by Steven Johnson • 2018
Why our biggest choices flunk the pro/con list, and what works: mapping, rehearsal, fiction.
3.55
2k+
Farsighted Summary
Farsighted 95%
Why our biggest choices flunk the pro/con list, and what works: mapping, rehearsal, fiction.
by Steven Johnson 2018
3.55
2k+ ratings
Why Smart People Make Big Money Mistakes And How To Correct Them
by Gary Belsky • 1999
The psychology that makes smart people fail with money, and the behavioral economics that fixes it.
3.96
2k+
Why Smart People Make Big Money Mistakes And How To Correct Them Summary
Why Smart People Make Big Money Mistakes And How To Correct Them 95%
The psychology that makes smart people fail with money, and the behavioral economics that fixes it.
by Gary Belsky 1999
3.96
2k+ ratings
Thinking and Deciding
by Jonathan Baron • 2007
A psychologist's guide to mental shortcuts that fail, and the rules that repair them.
4.06
320
Thinking and Deciding Summary
Thinking and Deciding 95%
A psychologist's guide to mental shortcuts that fail, and the rules that repair them.
by Jonathan Baron 2007
4.06
320 ratings
Thinking 101
by Woo-Kyoung Ahn • 2022
Your brain is wired for survival, not accuracy, and its errors are predictable.
3.82
2k+
Thinking 101 Summary
Thinking 101 95%
Your brain is wired for survival, not accuracy, and its errors are predictable.
by Woo-Kyoung Ahn 2022
3.82
2k+ ratings
The Winner's Curse
by Richard H. Thaler • 1991
Economic models assume you're rational; auctions, risk, and mental accounting prove otherwise.
3.82
611
The Winner's Curse Summary
The Winner's Curse 95%
Economic models assume you're rational; auctions, risk, and mental accounting prove otherwise.
by Richard H. Thaler 1991
3.82
611 ratings
Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom
by THARP • 1998
A random coin toss beat every entry method when paired with the right exit rules.
4.08
2k+
Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom Summary
Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom 95%
A random coin toss beat every entry method when paired with the right exit rules.
by THARP 1998
4.08
2k+ ratings
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
by Richards J. Heuer Jr. • 2005
CIA's textbook for outthinking your own limits: structured methods that catch what intuition misses.
4.27
1k+
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis Summary
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis 95%
CIA's textbook for outthinking your own limits: structured methods that catch what intuition misses.
by Richards J. Heuer Jr. 2005
4.27
1k+ ratings
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