The Big Sort

1. America is Sorting Itself into Politically Homogeneous Communities.

In 2004, nearly half of all voters lived in landslide counties.

Growing political segregation. Over the past three decades, Americans have increasingly clustered into communities of sameness, among people with similar ways of life, beliefs, and ultimately, politics. This phenomenon, termed "The Big Sort," means that neighborhoods are becoming more distinctly Democratic or Republican, even within states. For instance, in Austin, Texas, a neighborhood might vote overwhelmingly for a Democratic candidate, while the state as a whole leans Republican.

Landslide counties proliferate. The most striking evidence of this sorting is the rise of "landslide counties"—places where one party wins by 20 percentage points or more. In 1976, less than a quarter of Americans lived in such counties; by 2004, nearly half did. This trend is not limited to specific regions but is occurring across the nation, indicating a fundamental shift in how Americans choose to live.

Beyond simple partisanship. This isn't merely an increase in political partisanship among leaders, but a deeper, self-perpetuating social division. People are forming tribes not just in their neighborhoods, but also in churches and volunteer groups, creating "social resonators" where their beliefs are reflected and amplified, leading to more extreme thinking.

2. Migration is a Key Driver of This Political Segregation.

As Americans have moved over the past three decades, they have clustered in communities of sameness, among people with similar ways of life, beliefs, and, in the end, politics.

Voting with their feet. Americans are making choices about where to live based on who their neighbors will be, and these are increasingly political decisions. While not always a conscious effort to live among like-voting individuals, the result is the same: people gravitate towards communities that feel "right" and reinforce their identities. This "assortative migration" attracts more Democrats to Democratic counties and more Republicans to Republican counties.

Selective flows of people. The migration patterns observed from 1970 to 2000 were selective, varying by personal characteristics rather than broad demographics.

• Young, educated people moved to urban centers like Austin or San Francisco.
• Those with lower incomes moved out of these expensive cities.
• Blacks gravitated towards cities with strong black communities (e.g., Atlanta, Washington D.C.).
• Whites increasingly concentrated in Republican counties, a "new white flight."

Economic and cultural consequences. This sorting has profound economic and cultural effects. It creates prosperity in some places while decimating others, and it reshapes local economies based on the values and lifestyles of the incoming populations. For example, Colorado's shift towards the Democratic Party is linked to an influx of people from "blue" counties elsewhere, while its rural areas remain staunchly Republican.

3. Like-Minded Groups Naturally Polarize and Suppress Dissent.

Mixed company moderates; like-minded company polarizes.

The psychology of tribes. Research in social psychology consistently shows that homogeneous groups tend to become more extreme in their thinking and squelch dissent. This "group polarization" means that when individuals inclined towards a certain view discuss it within a like-minded group, their collective decision becomes even more extreme than their individual prediscussion opinions.

Historical parallels. This phenomenon is not new. Early American congressmen, living in boarding houses segregated by region and outlook, formed voting blocs that stifled compromise. A member who voted against his "tablemates" risked social exile. Today, a similar "dormitory life" in Washington D.C. among partisan legislators intensifies ideological isolation.

Consequences for public discourse:

• Avoidance of disagreement: Americans are exceptionally reluctant to discuss politics with those holding different views.
• Distrust of the "other side": As communication diminishes, each side perceives the other as more extreme than they actually are.
• Confirmation bias: People selectively consume media and interpret information in ways that confirm their existing beliefs, reinforcing their own views and dismissing contrary arguments.

This inherent human tendency to seek comfort in agreement, when combined with geographic sorting, creates a powerful feedback loop that pushes communities and individuals towards ideological extremes.

4. A "Silent Revolution" of Values Underpins This Societal Shift.

The fulfillment of material needs would generally be taken for granted, and education levels would rise along with incomes, he surmised. And all that material progress, he found, "brings unforeseen changes—change in gender roles, attitudes toward authority and sexual norms; declining fertility rates; broader political participation; and less easily led publics."

Post-materialist values emerge. Beginning around 1965, a "silent revolution" occurred in industrialized societies, driven by unprecedented prosperity. As basic material needs were met, people shifted their focus from survival to self-expression, individual choice, and values. This led to declining interest in traditional religion, increased concern for the environment, and a desire for personal freedom.

Decline of traditional institutions. This cultural shift manifested in a widespread "dealignment" from traditional institutions.

• Political parties: A mass withdrawal of support for both Democratic and Republican parties began in 1965, with more Americans identifying as independents.
• Civic organizations: Membership in broad-based groups like the Elks or PTA plummeted, replaced by issue-oriented advocacy groups.
• Mainline churches: After centuries of growth, mainline Protestant denominations began to shrink, as people sought more personalized spiritual experiences or joined independent Evangelical congregations.

Loss of public trust. Concurrently, trust in government and other public institutions (universities, medicine, journalism) declined significantly across industrialized nations. This wasn't due to specific scandals alone, but a broader cultural phenomenon where people became less inclined to obey central authority and more skeptical of hierarchical structures.

5. Churches Have Become Homogeneous Units, Reinforcing Segregation.

Men do not join churches where services are conducted in a language they do not understand, or where members have a noticeably higher degree of education, wear better clothes, and are obviously of a different sort.

The "homogeneous unit principle." Evangelical ministers, inspired by missionary Donald McGavran's work in India, adopted the "homogeneous unit principle" for church growth. This strategy posits that churches grow best when they cater to culturally coherent groups, breaking down barriers of class, language, or lifestyle. This led to the rise of megachurches designed to appeal to specific "tribes" in American suburbia.

Niche marketing for faith. Churches now actively market themselves to specific demographics, offering tailored experiences.

• Megachurches: Provide ample parking, contemporary music, and casual dress to attract middle-class suburbanites.
• Emerging churches: Offer non-judgmental, questioning environments for postmodern individuals disillusioned with rigid doctrine.
• Denominational shifts: Traditional denominations are losing members, while independent or conservative churches are growing, often downplaying national affiliations in favor of local identity.

Political segregation in pews. This segmentation has profound political implications. Church congregations are highly politically homogeneous, with members overwhelmingly sharing similar political views. Discussions within these groups reinforce existing beliefs, contributing to greater ideological uniformity. The "God gap" in American politics is not just about attendance, but about the specific type of religious belief and the community it fosters.

6. Marketing and Political Campaigns Exploit and Deepen Societal Segmentation.

The business concept is to deliver a local experience along with Thousand Island dressing, to create a place where "our kind of people" take their dinner.

From mass to segmented markets. Just as churches learned to cater to "homogeneous units," businesses shifted from mass marketing to market segmentation. Advertisers realized that consumers, driven by a "Revolution of the Individual," preferred products and experiences tailored to their specific "lifestyles, attitudes, and values," rather than being treated as part of a generic mass.

Political campaigns adopt segmentation. Political campaigns, traditionally slower to innovate, eventually embraced these techniques.

• Micro-targeting: The Bush campaign in 2004 famously used consumer data to identify voters by lifestyle (e.g., "Volvo and yoga" for Democrats, "Lincoln and gun" for Republicans) to target specific messages and maximize turnout among partisans.
• "Applebee's strategy": Republicans adopted a strategy akin to the restaurant chain's "neighborhood wall" concept, creating a sense of local community and shared values around the candidate, rather than trying to persuade undecided voters.
• "Friendship evangelism": Campaign volunteers, often from local social networks like churches, engaged in "witnessing" their support for the candidate, leveraging existing community ties.

Reinforcing polarization. This approach, focused on mobilizing a loyal base rather than persuading the middle, further deepened political polarization. It created "echo chambers" where voters heard only reinforcing messages, making compromise and consensus-building less likely and fostering an "us vs. them" mentality.

7. Lifestyle Choices Now Strongly Predict Political Affiliation.

The change in geography was really a sorting by lifestyle and, ultimately, by political party.

"Books, beer, bikes, and Birkenstocks." Lifestyle choices have become powerful indicators of political affiliation. For example, Portland, Oregon, attracts individuals who value public transportation, bike trails, independent bookstores, and craft breweries—a cultural constellation that aligns with liberal politics. Conversely, exurban areas attract those seeking space, a rural aesthetic, and often, conservative values.

The strict father/nurturant parent divide. This lifestyle sorting is rooted in fundamental differences in worldview, particularly regarding child-rearing philosophies.

• Strict fathers (conservatives): Prioritize respect for elders, obedience, good manners, and self-reliance.
• Nurturant parents (liberals): Emphasize independence, curiosity, and being considerate.
  These moral systems now strongly correlate with political parties, influencing views on issues from gay marriage to national defense.

Geography of family structures. Even family structures are segregating. States and counties with "Western European, Dutch-like family styles"—later marriages, fewer children, more cohabitation—tend to vote Democratic. Conversely, areas with more traditional family structures (earlier marriages, more children) lean Republican. This means that where and how people live, marry, and raise children are now deeply intertwined with their political identity.

8. The Absence of Diverse Social Ties Fuels Intolerance and Stalemate.

The man on the other side is not just an opponent; he soon becomes an enemy.

Loss of "cross-cutting" relationships. Historically, societies maintained stability through "cross-cutting" relationships, where individuals had diverse social ties that prevented conflicts from escalating. Friends in one context might be opponents in another, fostering compromise. However, the Big Sort has led to a decline in these mixed relationships, as people increasingly associate only with those who share their values and beliefs.

Consequences for governance:

• Congressional stalemate: With a dwindling number of moderates and increased ideological homogeneity in districts, Congress struggles to pass major legislation, leading to gridlock and a focus on blaming the "other side."
• "Steroidal federalism": In the absence of national consensus, state and local governments, reflecting their increasingly homogeneous populations, enact wildly divergent laws on issues like abortion, gay marriage, and environmental policy.
• Erosion of compromise: The ability to "show just enough to win the turkey"—to find common ground and make deals—is lost when politicians are pressured by an "red-hot base" of ideologically pure constituents.

The paradox of democracy. While increased partisanship boosts voter turnout, it also reduces the willingness to listen to opposing views, hindering deliberation and tolerance. The ideal of a diverse society where different opinions can clash constructively is being replaced by "self-focused collectives" that prioritize conformity and certainty, making national consensus increasingly elusive.