Key Takeaways
1. The "Securitarian Personality" Drives Trump's Base
The central feature of Trump’s base is their belief that the noblest and most essential task of a human being is to protect person, family, culture, and country from the tangible threats they believe are posed by outsiders.
A new lens. The conventional explanations for Donald Trump's fervent support—such as economic hardship, generic fear, or traditional authoritarianism—often miss the mark. Instead, a deeper, more fundamental psychological orientation, termed the "securitarian personality," is at play. This perspective suggests that Trump's most ardent followers, or "Trump venerators," are primarily motivated by an innate drive for security and a profound aversion to vulnerability.
Vigilance as a core value. Securitarians are not merely concerned about threats; they are defined by their proactive vigilance. They believe in constantly monitoring for dangers, especially those emanating from external sources or "outsiders," and taking decisive steps to guard against them. This mindset shapes their political preferences, leading them to gravitate towards leaders who authentically embody this commitment to protection.
Beyond simple fear. For securitarians, security is not a tiresome burden but an uplifting mission. The act of being vigilant and prepared, of fulfilling their duty to protect, brings a deep sense of satisfaction and virtue. This intrinsic reward system means that even in the absence of immediate, palpable fear, securitarians will continue to prioritize and pursue policies that enhance the safety and unity of their perceived "insider" group.
2. Securitarians Prioritize Insider Protection Over All Else
In Trump supporters’ worldview, insiders are the historical and numerical core of the country—the dominant race, religion, and language group—plus those who can be trusted to work to strengthen that core, preferably by defending and enriching it, but at the least by not dividing and placing demands on it.
Defining "insiders" and "outsiders." Securitarians operate with a clear distinction between "insiders" and "outsiders." Insiders represent the established, dominant cultural and demographic core of the nation, along with anyone who actively supports and strengthens this core. Outsiders, conversely, are those who do not belong to this core, whether they live outside the country or within it, and are perceived as potential threats to unity and strength.
A point system for belonging. The categorization of individuals as insider or outsider is not always black and white but often operates on a "point system." Individuals lose points for:
- Different skin color, national origin, religion, language, or customs.
- Being a "public charge" or violating norms and laws.
- Advocating policies that weaken insider unity or security (e.g., welfare spending, foreign aid, immigration).
Conversely, individuals can gain points by demonstrating loyalty and a commitment to strengthening the insider group, regardless of their demographic background.
Security over other concerns. For securitarians, issues like economic policy, social welfare, or even certain moral stances are often secondary to the overarching goal of insider security. Their support for policies such as tax cuts, deregulation, or opposition to welfare spending is frequently rooted in the belief that these measures either strengthen insiders or prevent resources from benefiting perceived outsiders, rather than purely economic or social principles.
3. Traditional Demographics Don't Fully Explain Trump's Core
A surprising number of Trump venerators are not poor, not uneducated, not rural (62% live in cities or suburbs), not religious (54% attend church services only a few times a year or less), not old (one-third are under 50), and not male (47% of all those who are convinced Donald Trump is one of the very best presidents ever are females).
Beyond stereotypes. While the popular narrative often paints Trump's base as exclusively old, white, poor, uneducated, rural males, empirical data reveals a more nuanced picture. A 2019 survey of Trump venerators (those who strongly agreed Trump was one of the best presidents ever) showed that while they leaned towards these demographics compared to liberals, a significant portion defied these stereotypes.
Modest demographic differences. When comparing Trump venerators to non-Trump-venerating conservatives, the demographic differences become even less pronounced.
- Trump venerators are significantly older and less educated.
- However, there are no significant differences in terms of race, income, gender, rural residence, or religiosity.
This suggests that demographic factors alone are insufficient to explain the fervent support for Trump; deeper psychological predispositions are at play.
Attitudes, not just attributes. The decision to live in a rural area, attend an evangelical church, or forgo college may reflect underlying psychological predispositions that also make figures like Trump appealing. Therefore, while demographics can correlate with political preferences, they may be more a reflection of deeper attitudes rather than direct causal factors. The focus shifts from who people are to how they think and feel.
4. Trump Venerators Are Not Generically Fearful or Resentful
Of the four groups, Trump venerators are actually the least likely to agree—10 percentage points lower than liberals (33% to 43%)—that “I admit to being somewhat bitter about the way that people like me are viewed and treated.”
Challenging the "angry base" narrative. Contrary to widespread belief, Trump venerators are not characterized by generic bitterness, anger, resentment, or social unfulfillment. Survey data from 2019, during Trump's presidency, revealed that his most ardent supporters were less likely than liberals, moderates, and even other conservatives to report these negative emotions. This suggests that their emotional state is often context-dependent, influenced by having a leader who aligns with their values.
Targeted, not universal, threats. Trump venerators are not universally more threatened by all dangers. They are significantly more concerned by threats from:
- Outsiders: foreign powers (like China), criminals, immigrants, terrorists.
- Those perceived as undermining insiders: liberals, the federal government (seen as overreaching).
Conversely, they are less threatened by non-outsider issues such as income inequality, lack of healthcare, racists, or natural disasters. Their vigilance is highly specific to perceived threats to insider security.
Rationalizing exclusion. The desire to exclude outsiders is so fundamental that it often precedes and even shapes perceptions of threat. Trump venerators may express feeling threatened by immigrants, not necessarily because of criminal or economic concerns, but because the mere presence of outsiders is seen as a threat to insider strength, homogeneity, and unity. This underlying drive for security can lead them to rationalize pre-existing desires to minimize interaction with those outside their defined group.
5. Trump Supporters Are Not Authoritarians, But Discerning
The central element of authoritarian personality tendencies—being eager to submit to someone else—not only fails to distinguish Trump venerators, it actually is a significant predictor of not being a Trump venerator.
Rejecting blind submission. The common label of "authoritarian" for Trump supporters is largely inaccurate. True authoritarians are characterized by a desire to submit to any established authority. However, Trump venerators are, if anything, less submissive than other political groups, preferring independence and self-sufficiency. They are highly discerning, only submitting to leaders who authentically share their securitarian predispositions.
Situational conformity and aggression. Trump venerators do not blindly conform to all societal norms; they are "situational conformists." They embrace conventions that foster insider security and reject those that hinder it (ee.g., "political correctness" or open borders). Similarly, their aggression is not generic but targeted at entities perceived as threats to their in-group. They are not against aggression, but it must serve the purpose of protecting insiders.
Security over democracy. A critical distinction is that Trump venerators are "situational democrats." While they may support democratic processes when they align with their goals, a significant majority (59% in a 2019 survey) would choose security over democracy if forced to choose. This willingness to sacrifice democratic principles for perceived security highlights that their ultimate loyalty is to insider protection, not to abstract democratic ideals or a generic authority figure.
6. Securitarianism is an Ancient, Evolutionarily Rooted Phenotype
Human securitarians advocate building prophylactic walls on the southern border for the same reason escape-tunnel-building mice build escape tunnels: they are predisposed to do so.
Lessons from the animal kingdom. The concept of securitarianism finds parallels in the animal world, suggesting deep evolutionary roots. Just as oldfield mice instinctively build escape tunnels in their burrows, or certain foxes exhibit wary vigilance, human securitarians are predisposed to prioritize protection from perceived threats. This behavior is not necessarily learned or a reaction to specific dangers, but an inherent orientation.
Predisposition, not just reaction. Securitarians are structured to be ready for outsider threats, rather than merely reacting to them out of fear. This means:
- They will continue to implement protective strategies even if evidence suggests threats are minimal or eliminated.
- Their actions are driven by a deep-seated predisposition, not solely by data or immediate experience.
This inherent drive makes them largely impervious to arguments or evidence that contradict their need for vigilance.
The "sight and might" approach. Unlike docile animals that approach or aggressive ones that attack, securitarians adopt a "sight and might" strategy. They meticulously monitor potential threats, posture to deter, and prepare for defense. This proactive stance, whether manifested in advocating for border walls or personal gun ownership, is a fundamental expression of their core drive to minimize vulnerability and ensure the safety of their in-group.
7. Securitarians Find Fulfillment in Vigilance, Not Just Fear
Strong Trump supporters, like all securitarians, enjoy the feeling they get when they take steps to protect themselves and their loved ones from threats posed by outsiders.
The "happy conservative" phenomenon. Research consistently shows that conservatives, and particularly Trump venerators, often report higher levels of social well-being, contentment, and happiness compared to liberals. This seemingly counterintuitive finding, given the narrative of an "angry" or "fearful" base, is explained by the intrinsic satisfaction securitarians derive from their vigilant mission.
Duty and purpose. For securitarians, the pursuit of security is not a burden but a source of purpose and fulfillment. Taking steps to protect their person, family, and culture from perceived outsider threats is seen as a noble duty. This sense of accomplishment and virtue contributes significantly to their positive emotional profile, even when they are actively engaged in what others might perceive as negative or exclusionary behaviors.
Beyond negative emotions. While securitarians are attentive to threats, their motivation is less about being consumed by fear, anxiety, or bitterness, and more about the positive feelings associated with being prepared and strong. This internal reward system reinforces their securitarian tendencies, making them resilient to external criticism or attempts to dissuade them with facts that downplay perceived dangers.
8. Racial Attitudes Stem from Insider/Outsider Dynamics, Not Overt Racism
Trump supporters believe they are not racists because race is only part of their (typically unwitting) assessment of insider status and because under the right circumstances—that is, if racial minorities demonstrate they are trustworthy, contributing members of society and that they are themselves ready to take steps to preserve insiders in the face of outsider threats—they can be fully accepted.
A restrictive definition of "insider." For securitarians, race is a significant, often primal, indicator of "outsider" status. Their desire for a homogeneous and unified insider group leads to wariness towards racial minorities and immigrants. This is not necessarily rooted in a belief of racial superiority, but rather in the conviction that diversity diminishes the strength and cohesion of the insider core.
Policy vs. personal interaction. Securitarians often believe they are not racist because they separate their policy preferences from personal interactions. They may have positive individual relationships with people of color, yet simultaneously advocate for policies that restrict immigration or limit the rights of minorities. In their view, personal kindness does not negate the need for policies that protect the broader insider group from perceived threats.
The onus of proof. From a securitarian perspective, racial minorities and immigrants must actively prove their loyalty and commitment to the insider group's security before gaining full acceptance. This expectation, while seen as pragmatic by securitarians, is perceived as blatant racism by their opponents, who argue that requiring such proof from one group but not another is inherently discriminatory.
9. Trump Venerators Exhibit Diverse Faces, But Securitarians Dominate
Consistent with my claims, a clear majority of Trump’s most earnest supporters—nearly 60%—are in the securitarian corner.
Subgroups within the base. While securitarianism is the dominant motivation, Trump's base is not monolithic. A 2019 survey identified four main subgroups among Trump venerators, based on their most important political issue:
- Securitarians (59.3%): Prioritize immigration, national defense, gun rights, law and order, patriotism.
- Social Warriors (14.9%): Focus on religious rights, abortion, homosexuality.
- Economically Concerned (12.0%): Concerned with economic health, healthcare, trade.
- Tea Partiers (11.1%): Emphasize government spending, taxes, regulations, welfare, federal deficit.
Distinct profiles. These subgroups exhibit unique demographic, personality, and emotional profiles:
- Securitarians: Older, financially well-off, less religious, most politically engaged, emotionally positive, least overtly racist (though still harsh on effort/deservingness).
- Social Warriors: Rural, highly religious, more "set in their ways."
- Economically Concerned: Younger, less well-off, more anxious, frustrated, pessimistic, resentful.
- Tea Partiers: Younger, non-religious, most likely to engage in "naughty" behaviors (e.g., smoking, porn, speeding), and most politically assertive/willing to break rules.
Securitarians as the driving force. Despite the diversity, securitarians form the largest and most influential segment of Trump's base. Their core concerns about outsider threats and insider protection are often shared, to varying degrees, by the other subgroups, creating a powerful, albeit sometimes uneasy, coalition within the Republican Party.
10. The Post-Trump Era: Enduring Securitarians, Shifting Alliances
For the foreseeable future, somewhere between 20% and 30% of the overall population will continue to have clear securitarian tendencies.
Securitarians are here to stay. The securitarian personality is an ancient and enduring political phenotype, not a temporary "backlash" against modern trends. While the specific issues and definitions of "outsiders" may evolve, the underlying drive for security from perceived threats will persist. This means securitarians will remain a significant and influential force in American politics, likely comprising 20-30% of the adult population.
Demographic shifts and securitarianism. While younger generations currently exhibit lower levels of securitarianism, this trend may be offset by other demographic shifts. For instance, black Democrats, despite their party affiliation, often hold significantly more securitarian views than white Democrats on issues like vigilance, national strength, and social policies. As racial minorities increasingly perceive themselves as "insiders," their securitarian impulses could shift political alignments, potentially benefiting Republican candidates.
Republican Party's future. Securitarians constitute nearly half of the Republican Party, and even non-securitarian Republicans often share sympathetic views on security issues. The challenge for the GOP post-Trump will be navigating the demands of this core. If the party moves away from Trump's unapologetically securitarian stance, it risks alienating his most fervent venerators, who may prioritize ideological purity over party loyalty, potentially leading to internal strife or disengagement.
11. The Core Political Divide: Securitarians vs. Unitarians
The fundamental political distinction in the world increasingly is no longer insiders and outsiders but people who support insiders and people who support outsiders.
The ultimate ideological cleavage. The most fundamental and enduring political divide is between securitarians, who prioritize the protection and unity of "insiders" from "outsider" threats, and "unitarians," who prioritize the welfare and inclusion of "outsiders" and are wary of concentrated "insider" power. This deep-seated ideological conflict transcends traditional demographic lines and is becoming increasingly vivid and meaningful.
Clash of duties. Both securitarians and unitarians believe they are pursuing a noble cause, but their objectives are diametrically opposed. Securitarians view unitarians as undermining essential insider security, while unitarians see securitarians as perpetuating harmful exclusion and oppression. This mutual perception of obstruction fuels intense animosity, making compromise and reconciliation exceedingly difficult.
Democracy's challenge. This bi-ideological divide poses a profound challenge to democracy. James Madison envisioned a polity with numerous cross-cutting cleavages, preventing rigid, permanent factions. However, as politics increasingly aligns along the securitarian-unitarian axis, cleavages become more rigid, and political conflict becomes less forgiving. The task ahead is to build a "bi-ideological democracy" where these fundamentally different orientations can coexist and govern without constant, destructive conflict.
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