The Great Experiment

1. The Great Experiment: A Unique and Unprecedented Endeavor

Today, we are embarking on a similarly novel endeavor. At a time when there is little precedent for them, we have stumbled into a great experiment in building highly diverse democracies that manage to endure and, hopefully, treat their members fairly.

A historical first. The core premise is that modern diverse democracies are a "historically unique experiment." Unlike past empires or monarchies that tolerated diversity without granting equality, or premodern democracies restricted to ethnic in-groups, contemporary democracies are attempting to achieve both high diversity and genuine equality. This unprecedented journey lacks a clear roadmap, making its success uncertain but its pursuit vital.

Unintended consequences. This experiment wasn't consciously chosen by a "secret cabal" but is the "oft-unintended consequence of a series of choices that politicians have made for a variety of economic, political, and humanitarian reasons." Countries like Germany, Sweden, Australia, and the United States have undergone rapid demographic shifts due to labor needs, colonial legacies, or asylum policies, without a coherent plan for managing the resulting diversity. This lack of foresight explains many current problems.

High stakes. The success of this experiment is the "most important endeavor of our time." Failure could lead to prohibitive costs, including widespread injustice, mutual mistrust, persistent oppression, or even civil war. Therefore, developing an optimistic yet realistic vision for how diverse democracies can succeed is crucial, moving beyond the current pessimism that often distorts reality.

2. Human Nature's Groupish Tendency Fuels Conflict and Cooperation

If we are to keep the darkest aspects of our natures in check, the question is not whether we can overcome our “groupish” instinct; it is how we can build on its enormous potential for good while containing its terrifying capacity for evil.

In-group favoritism. Research, like Henri Tajfel's "minimal group paradigm," demonstrates that humans are "hardwired to form groups" and discriminate against outsiders, even based on "flimsy and unimportant criteria." This innate tendency means that tribal rivalries and ethnic hatreds are not mere aberrations but deeply rooted aspects of human psychology, making the ideal of universal harmony naive without proper management.

Dual nature of groups. While groupishness can lead to "the darkest chapters in human history," it is also responsible for "our species’ greatest achievements." Humans are uniquely sociable, capable of complex cooperation that chimpanzees cannot achieve. This cooperation, often in the name of specific identity groups, has built cities, created art, and driven scientific advances, highlighting the immense potential for good when collective identity is channeled constructively.

Malleable identities. The salience and impact of group identities are not fixed but "deeply shaped by circumstances." Political incentives, historical context, and local conditions determine whether groups see each other as allies or enemies. The example of Chewas and Tumbukas, who are adversaries in Malawi but allies in Zambia due to political structures, illustrates how changing conditions can transform intergroup relations, offering hope for mitigating conflict.

3. Diverse Societies Historically Fail Through Anarchy, Domination, or Fragmentation

All of the evidence we have points to the ever-present possibility that even diverse democracies that are comparatively peaceful will suffer from mutual mistrust, persistent oppression, or civil war.

Structured anarchy. Thomas Hobbes's "war of every man against every man" is often mitigated within small groups by "informal rules and long-standing affections." However, between groups, the absence of a central authority often leads to "wanton death and unspeakable cruelty," a state the author calls "structured anarchy." Afghanistan, with its numerous ethnic and tribal divisions, exemplifies this, struggling to provide basic public goods due to a weak central government and endemic intergroup conflict.

Three forms of domination. Historically, diverse societies often dealt with diversity by allowing one group to dominate others.

• Hard domination: Explicit subjugation, as seen in American chattel slavery or settler colonies, where one group openly claimed superiority and denied basic rights.
• Soft domination: Implicit marginalization, prevalent in historically homogeneous European democracies that, upon becoming diverse, continued to favor the traditional majority through cultural norms and institutions, making minorities feel like "guests or intruders."
• Minority domination: A powerful minority rules over a majority, as in apartheid South Africa or Saddam Hussein's Iraq, often leading to brutal oppression and the risk of violent backlash.

Fragmentation's pitfalls. Power-sharing arrangements, or "consociational democracies," like those in Lebanon, aim to manage fragmentation by giving each group a seat at the table. However, these often "deepen fragmentation" by entrenching existing identities, minimizing intergroup contact, and creating a "democratic deficit" where elites maintain control and individuals are coerced by their own communities. This can lead to gridlock, corruption, and ultimately, civil war.

4. Liberalism is Essential for Individual Freedom and Identity in Diverse Democracies

Only a diverse democracy built on the principles of philosophical liberalism is capable of protecting both of these core values at the same time.

Justifying state coercion. Modern states exert immense authority, and in diverse democracies, justifying this coercion is complex due to deeper disagreements on morality and religion. Philosophical liberalism, which posits that a legitimate state protects citizens' liberties and respects their moral autonomy, offers a framework. It emphasizes individuals, not groups, as the "fundamental building block of society."

Double freedom. Citizens in thriving diverse democracies need two crucial freedoms:

• Freedom from persecution by the out-group: Protection from arbitrary state power (e.g., Alexei Navalny's case in Russia) and from the "tyranny of the majority" or non-state actors (e.g., hate crimes). This requires regular elections, separation of powers, and individual rights like free speech and assembly.
• Freedom from coercion by the in-group: Protection from oppressive norms imposed by one's own family, elders, or clerics (the "cage of norms"). Examples include forced marriages or genital mutilation, where individuals must have the right to violate community norms and even exit their group.

Liberalism's advantage. Communitarian alternatives, which place groups at the foundation of society, fail to provide this "freedom from coercion by the in-group," leaving individuals vulnerable to oppressive community norms. Liberalism, by prioritizing individual rights and autonomy, allows for deep respect for cultural and religious communities while ensuring individuals can chart their own course, even if it means diverging from inherited traditions.

5. Inclusive Patriotism: The Vital Glue for Diverse Nations

But when decent people succeed in domesticating patriotism, it can be of tremendous use in allowing the citizens of modern states to care for one another’s fate.

The beast of nationalism. Nationalism, a powerful political force, can be destructive when it devolves into "fervid nationalism" or "bellicose nationalism," leading to exclusion, discrimination, and conflict. However, dismissing all forms of national sentiment as naive is dangerous; a society without patriotism might devolve into "mutually hostile tribes" rather than altruistic cosmopolitans.

Domesticating patriotism. The author advocates for a "constructive form of patriotism" that can serve as a "bulwark against the worst manifestations of national sentiment." This "half-wild beast" can be domesticated to foster solidarity among diverse citizens, extending sympathy beyond immediate family or tribe to fellow citizens, regardless of their background.

Civic and cultural patriotism. Inclusive patriotism combines two elements:

• Civic patriotism: Love of country rooted in shared political values and constitutional ideals (e.g., American commitment to liberty, German Grundgesetz). It is inclusive, allowing anyone embracing these values to belong.
• Cultural patriotism: Affection for the "everyday" culture of a nation – its language, cities, customs, food, and "cultural scripts." This is a living, evolving culture, shaped by all residents, including immigrants, and is not static or exclusionary. It acknowledges the unique "feel" of a place (like New York City or France vs. Germany) without claiming superiority.

6. Beyond Melting Pots and Salad Bowls: The Public Park Vision for Shared Life

The best kinds of public spaces allow each person to do their own thing while facilitating unexpected encounters that could lead to lasting connections.

Flaws of past metaphors. The "melting pot" (assimilation) and "salad bowl" (multiculturalism/fragmentation) metaphors have both led diverse democracies astray. The melting pot, while noble in its aspiration to transcend old hatreds, was "unduly homogenizing," asking immigrants to abandon ancestral cultures. The salad bowl, while celebrating distinct communities, risked "deepening the fragmentation" of society, leading to parallel societies with minimal intergroup contact and unchecked authority within communities (e.g., faith-based schools in the UK).

The public park metaphor. A new guiding metaphor is needed: the "public park." This vision allows citizens to remain true to their identities while fostering a shared culture and common purpose.

• Open to everyone: Like a park, diverse democracies must ensure equal respect and dignity for all, free from discrimination, allowing all members to use public spaces on the same terms.
• Options for visitors: Citizens are free to lead lives according to their values (religious, secular, etc.), but must respect others' rights. The state protects against both external oppression and internal coercion, ensuring safety and choice.
• Vibrant space for encounter: The park is a bustling, beautiful, and safe space where people can do their own thing but also have "meaningful opportunities to interact and cooperate." It facilitates "chance encounters" that can lead to lasting connections and a recognition of shared commonalities.

Cohesion and pluralism. The public park vision aims for a society with "both a real feel of cohesion and boast of a huge variety of subcultures." It rejects cultural purism and celebrates "mutual cultural influence" as a principal joy of thriving diverse democracies, where different cultures mix and create something new, rather than being seen as "cultural appropriation."

7. Optimism is Justified: Significant Progress in Integration and Socioeconomic Mobility

But we must not allow our unflinching attention to the serious challenges facing diverse democracies to blind us to the fact that most diverse democracies have made big strides toward a better future.

Challenging pessimism. A prevailing pessimism, shared by both critics and some proponents of diversity, claims that immigrants and minorities are not integrating, are socioeconomically underperforming, and pose threats like crime or terrorism. However, this view "distorts reality" and overlooks significant progress.

Integration and acceptance. Attitudes towards who "truly" belongs in a nation are rapidly liberalizing in many diverse democracies. While some exclusion persists, survey data shows a decreasing emphasis on shared descent or birthright. Immigrants, in turn, are rapidly integrating:

• Language acquisition: Second and third generations overwhelmingly adopt the local language, often losing their ancestral tongue.
• Democratic values: Immigrants often show strong patriotism and trust in democratic institutions, sometimes more so than native-born populations.
• Cultural mainstream: Minority groups are increasingly visible and accepted in everyday culture, from celebrities to food.

Socioeconomic mobility. While disparities exist, the narrative of persistent disadvantage is misleading.

• Narrowing gaps: Educational and income gaps between minority groups and the historically dominant majority are "rapidly narrowing" across generations in most countries.
• Upward mobility: Children of immigrants often show higher rates of upward mobility than children of the native-born, even those arriving with few resources.
• African American progress: Despite the severe legacy of slavery and ongoing challenges, African Americans have seen significant improvements in income, education, and life expectancy over the past 60 years, with a majority now in the middle class.

Crime and terrorism. While real concerns exist regarding crime and terrorism, these are often exaggerated. Immigrants are often less likely to commit crimes than the native-born. Terrorist attacks, while horrific, are perpetrated by a tiny minority and should not define the vast majority of peaceful, integrated minority communities.

8. Demography Isn't Destiny: Rejecting Inevitable Racial Polarization

But the fact that Trump—of all people—unexpectedly picked up millions of votes from “people of color” in his failed bid for reelection should drive home just how naive it is to make confident predictions about the ethnic cleavages of 2032 or 2048.

Flawed "majority-minority" predictions. The widely cited projection that the U.S. will become "majority minority" by the 2040s is based on "highly questionable assumptions" about racial self-identification. These models often categorize mixed-race individuals or many Hispanics as "people of color," ignoring their complex identities and increasing integration into a broader "American mainstream."

Fluid identities. Racial and ethnic identities are far more fluid and malleable than often assumed.

• Mixed-race America: A rapidly growing segment of the population, with many mixed-race individuals identifying as white or deeply integrated into white America.
• Latino complexity: Many Latinos identify as white and do not necessarily form a cohesive "people of color" bloc, with diverse political views that defy simple categorization.
• Asian American distinctiveness: While often seen as racially distinct, Asian Americans' high socioeconomic status and diverse political leanings make a lasting coalition with other "people of color" less certain.

Political implications. The idea of an "inevitable demographic majority" for one political party (e.g., Democrats in the U.S.) is "dangerous." Recent elections show that electoral behavior is not fixed by race; Donald Trump, for example, gained significant support among "people of color." This demonstrates that political alliances are shifting and that a future of neatly segregated "blue races" and "red races" is not foreordained.

Expanding the mainstream. The goal should be to integrate an "ever-greater array of ethnic and religious groups into an expanding mainstream," rather than accepting a future of mutually hostile racial blocs. This requires politicians to appeal beyond traditional demographic bases and for society to foster porous boundaries between groups, countering ideologies that seek to make racial identity an "all-encompassing dividing line."

9. Policies for Secure Prosperity and Universal Solidarity

The more diverse democracies are able to offer their citizens secure prosperity, the better the background conditions for the great experiment to succeed.

Secure prosperity. Economic stagnation and inequality fuel intergroup fear and disdain, as seen in France's "yellow vest" protests. Conversely, "rapid economic growth is usually associated with a significant liberalization of social attitudes." Diverse democracies must pursue policies that boost economic growth and ensure its benefits reach all citizens, fostering a sense of confidence in the future.

• Promote growth: Fight monopolies, invest in innovation, ease business creation, reform education, and provide basic welfare benefits.
• Inclusive distribution: Implement progressive taxation, empower workers for fair wages, and invest in vocational training and apprenticeship programs.
• Future tools: Explore international tax harmonization (e.g., G7 minimum tax), industrial policy, or universal basic income.

Universal solidarity. To overcome historical domination and persistent socioeconomic gaps, policies should focus on "universal solidarity" rather than "race-conscious" approaches.

• Equal opportunity: Robust anti-discrimination laws, open access to higher education, and ending unpaid internships.
• Early childhood investment: Significantly increase resources for early childcare, kindergartens, and elementary schools to maximize every child's potential.
• Equitable school funding: Provide supplemental funding to disadvantaged school districts to ensure equal pedagogical resources.
• Reject race-conscious policies: While well-intentioned, these policies (e.g., preferential loans or vaccine access based on race) are often hard to implement, create arbitrary distinctions, and undermine broad public support for welfare programs, potentially exacerbating fragmentation.

10. Cultivating Effective Institutions and Mutual Respect

For our ultimate ambition should not be to score rhetorical points or win the next election but rather to rally as many of our compatriots to the cause of the great experiment as possible.

Effective and inclusive institutions. Many democracies suffer from institutions that are ineffective, unresponsive, or exclusionary, leading to a sense of citizens lacking control over their collective fate. Reforms are needed to make governments more responsive and inclusive.

• EU reform: Expand European Parliament powers, but return some social/cultural decision-making to national levels.
• US reform: Reduce legislative gridlock (e.g., reform Senate filibuster, "Hastert Rule"), adopt electoral reforms (ranked-choice voting, nonpartisan primaries), grant statehood to D.C. and Puerto Rico, and ensure nonpartisan drawing of electoral districts.
• Protect voting rights: Implement automatic voter registration, more voting locations, free ID cards, and repeal laws that give politicians power to overturn election results.

Immigration policy. Democracies have a legitimate right to control their borders. Counterintuitively, "those who hope to persuade their compatriots of the benefits of relatively high levels of immigration have good reason to demonstrate that they are capable of exercising real control over who enters the country." This can foster more welcoming attitudes.

Culture of mutual respect. Rising polarization, fueled by a "social and cultural divorce" between different segments of society, threatens mutual respect. Counteracting this requires individual and collective action:

• Stick to principles: Avoid outsourcing thinking to enemies; apply consistent moral standards.
• Criticize your own: Be willing to critique one's own side, even if it risks accusations of "both-siderism," to hold all groups accountable.
• Engage and persuade: Prioritize genuine debate over ridicule or vilification to rally broad support for diverse democracy.
• Personal action: Get out of bubbles, build bridges, seek diverse friends, engage in interfaith organizations, and model the desired future in daily life.

Last updated: February 23, 2026