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SoBrief
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How to Expect the Unexpected
by Kit Yates • 2023
Master the science of prediction: why your gut fails, and when the smartest forecast is none.
3.69
188
How to Expect the Unexpected Summary
How to Expect the Unexpected 95%
Master the science of prediction: why your gut fails, and when the smartest forecast is none.
by Kit Yates 2023
3.69
188 ratings
Fluke
by Brian Klaas • 2024
Your brain evolved to hide chance from you. Chaos science reveals what you are missing.
4.06
4k+
Fluke Summary
Fluke 94%
Your brain evolved to hide chance from you. Chaos science reveals what you are missing.
by Brian Klaas 2024
4.06
4k+ ratings
Ubiquity
by Mark Buchanan • 2000
One grain of sand explains why markets crash, species vanish, and empires fall.
3.90
716
Ubiquity Summary
Ubiquity 94%
One grain of sand explains why markets crash, species vanish, and empires fall.
by Mark Buchanan 2000
3.90
716 ratings
Future Babble
by Dan Gardner • 2010
Confidence sells. Accuracy doesn't. Why the loudest experts are the worst forecasters.
3.79
737
Future Babble Summary
Future Babble 93%
Confidence sells. Accuracy doesn't. Why the loudest experts are the worst forecasters.
by Dan Gardner 2010
3.79
737 ratings
Complexity
by M. Mitchell Waldrop • 1992
In a desert convent, a few rogue scientists discovered the universal grammar of complex systems.
4.05
3k+
Complexity Summary
Complexity 93%
In a desert convent, a few rogue scientists discovered the universal grammar of complex systems.
by M. Mitchell Waldrop 1992
4.05
3k+ ratings
Bursts
by Albert-László Barabási • 2010
Why your email bursts, your travels repeat, and history rhymes: one hidden law of priority.
3.30
1k+
Bursts Summary
Bursts 93%
Why your email bursts, your travels repeat, and history rhymes: one hidden law of priority.
by Albert-László Barabási 2010
3.30
1k+ ratings
Deep Simplicity
by John Gribbin • 2004
Simple rules, run long enough, build a universe. A physicist shows the working.
3.98
2k+
Deep Simplicity Summary
Deep Simplicity 93%
Simple rules, run long enough, build a universe. A physicist shows the working.
by John Gribbin 2004
3.98
2k+ ratings
Diversity and Complexity
by Scott E. Page • 2010
Diversity isn't a slogan: it's a measurable property with predictable benefits and knowable limits.
4.12
207
Diversity and Complexity Summary
Diversity and Complexity 93%
Diversity isn't a slogan: it's a measurable property with predictable benefits and knowable limits.
by Scott E. Page 2010
4.12
207 ratings
The Model Thinker
by Scott E. Page • 2018
Big data without many models is just noise. The case for thinking through multiple frameworks.
3.92
955
The Model Thinker Summary
The Model Thinker 93%
Big data without many models is just noise. The case for thinking through multiple frameworks.
by Scott E. Page 2018
3.92
955 ratings
Everyday Chaos
by David Weinberger • 2019
A medical AI diagnoses illness but can't explain how. The age of demanding explanations is over.
3.78
202
Everyday Chaos Summary
Everyday Chaos 93%
A medical AI diagnoses illness but can't explain how. The age of demanding explanations is over.
by David Weinberger 2019
3.78
202 ratings
Superforecasting
by Philip E. Tetlock • 2015
30% more accurate than CIA analysts: the trainable habits that predict the future.
4.08
22k+
Superforecasting Summary
Superforecasting 93%
30% more accurate than CIA analysts: the trainable habits that predict the future.
by Philip E. Tetlock 2015
4.08
22k+ ratings
Shape
by Jordan Ellenberg • 2021
Geometry is not about triangles. It is the hidden structure of pandemics, search, and democracy.
3.73
2k+
Shape Summary
Shape 93%
Geometry is not about triangles. It is the hidden structure of pandemics, search, and democracy.
by Jordan Ellenberg 2021
3.73
2k+ ratings
Forecast
by Mark Buchanan • 2013
What if markets work more like weather than clocks? The physics toolkit economics ignored.
3.93
184
Forecast Summary
Forecast 93%
What if markets work more like weather than clocks? The physics toolkit economics ignored.
by Mark Buchanan 2013
3.93
184 ratings
Thinking In Systems
by Donella H. Meadows • 2008
One hidden delay makes your thermostat swing wildly and drives business cycles too.
4.18
23k+
Thinking In Systems Summary
Thinking In Systems 93%
One hidden delay makes your thermostat swing wildly and drives business cycles too.
by Donella H. Meadows 2008
4.18
23k+ ratings
Sync
by Steven H. Strogatz • 2003
Fireflies flash in unison, heart cells beat as one. No leader. A single equation explains it.
4.07
3k+
Sync Summary
Sync 93%
Fireflies flash in unison, heart cells beat as one. No leader. A single equation explains it.
by Steven H. Strogatz 2003
4.07
3k+ ratings
Emergence
by Steven Johnson • 2001
Ant colonies, brains, cities, and the web all emerge from simple local rules repeated endlessly.
3.95
4k+
Emergence Summary
Emergence 93%
Ant colonies, brains, cities, and the web all emerge from simple local rules repeated endlessly.
by Steven Johnson 2001
3.95
4k+ ratings
The Physics of Wall Street
by James Owen Weatherall • 2013
Wall Street filled its ranks with physicists. They changed everything but the next crash.
3.85
2k+
The Physics of Wall Street Summary
The Physics of Wall Street 92%
Wall Street filled its ranks with physicists. They changed everything but the next crash.
by James Owen Weatherall 2013
3.85
2k+ ratings
Farsighted
by Steven Johnson • 2018
Why our biggest choices flunk the pro/con list, and what works: mapping, rehearsal, fiction.
3.55
2k+
Farsighted Summary
Farsighted 92%
Why our biggest choices flunk the pro/con list, and what works: mapping, rehearsal, fiction.
by Steven Johnson 2018
3.55
2k+ ratings
Everything Is Predictable
by Tom Chivers • 2024
The math behind your spam filter also reveals that your brain is hallucinating reality.
4.02
1k+
Everything Is Predictable Summary
Everything Is Predictable 92%
The math behind your spam filter also reveals that your brain is hallucinating reality.
by Tom Chivers 2024
4.02
1k+ ratings
Everything is Obvious
by Duncan J. Watts • 2011
Common sense is a reverse-engineered story: it explains the past perfectly and predicts nothing.
3.81
5k+
Everything is Obvious Summary
Everything is Obvious 92%
Common sense is a reverse-engineered story: it explains the past perfectly and predicts nothing.
by Duncan J. Watts 2011
3.81
5k+ ratings
2052
by Jørgen Randers • 2012
A Limits to Growth update: population shrinks, growth slows, yet 2°C warming still hits by 2052.
3.95
355
2052 Summary
2052 92%
A Limits to Growth update: population shrinks, growth slows, yet 2°C warming still hits by 2052.
by Jørgen Randers 2012
3.95
355 ratings
Why Most Things Fail
by Paul Ormerod • 2005
Business and biology share one extinction curve. Smarter planning barely bends it.
3.48
391
Why Most Things Fail Summary
Why Most Things Fail 92%
Business and biology share one extinction curve. Smarter planning barely bends it.
by Paul Ormerod 2005
3.48
391 ratings
The Science of Free Will
by Samir Varma • 2025
You can't predict your next thought. No computer can either. That's not a gap: it's free will.
3.35
17
The Science of Free Will Summary
The Science of Free Will 92%
You can't predict your next thought. No computer can either. That's not a gap: it's free will.
by Samir Varma 2025
3.35
17 ratings
The Flaw of Averages
by Sam L. Savage • 2009
A single average can sink your plan. The missing skill: thinking in distributions.
3.86
574
The Flaw of Averages Summary
The Flaw of Averages 92%
A single average can sink your plan. The missing skill: thinking in distributions.
by Sam L. Savage 2009
3.86
574 ratings
A Beautiful Math
by Tom Siegfried • 2006
Adam Smith, Darwin, and your brain's dopamine all obey the same mathematical logic.
3.59
389
A Beautiful Math Summary
A Beautiful Math 92%
Adam Smith, Darwin, and your brain's dopamine all obey the same mathematical logic.
by Tom Siegfried 2006
3.59
389 ratings
The Great Mental Models Volume 3
by Rhiannon Beaubien • 2021
The world runs on feedback loops and bottlenecks you never see. The models that expose them.
4.25
832
The Great Mental Models Volume 3 Summary
The Great Mental Models Volume 3 92%
The world runs on feedback loops and bottlenecks you never see. The models that expose them.
by Rhiannon Beaubien 2021
4.25
832 ratings
Chaos Kings
by Scott Patterson • 2023
They lose money every day on purpose, because one market crash will repay everything.
3.75
1k+
Chaos Kings Summary
Chaos Kings 92%
They lose money every day on purpose, because one market crash will repay everything.
by Scott Patterson 2023
3.75
1k+ ratings
Radical Uncertainty
by Mervyn A. King • 2020
When the future is genuinely unknowable, stories guide us better than probability ever could.
3.86
1k+
Radical Uncertainty Summary
Radical Uncertainty 92%
When the future is genuinely unknowable, stories guide us better than probability ever could.
by Mervyn A. King 2020
3.86
1k+ ratings
The Sciences of the Artificial
by Herbert A. Simon • 1969
A science of the artificial: how constrained minds design systems that work in a complex world.
4.29
669
The Sciences of the Artificial Summary
The Sciences of the Artificial 92%
A science of the artificial: how constrained minds design systems that work in a complex world.
by Herbert A. Simon 1969
4.29
669 ratings
Fooled by Randomness
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb • 2001
Ten thousand coin-flippers produce three hundred geniuses. The biographies write themselves.
4.08
72k+
Fooled by Randomness Summary
Fooled by Randomness 92%
Ten thousand coin-flippers produce three hundred geniuses. The biographies write themselves.
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb 2001
4.08
72k+ ratings
Nexus
by Mark Buchanan • 2002
Pandemics, power grids, and viral hits share a hidden architecture, and a few shortcuts explain why.
3.81
521
Nexus Summary
Nexus 92%
Pandemics, power grids, and viral hits share a hidden architecture, and a few shortcuts explain why.
by Mark Buchanan 2002
3.81
521 ratings
Butterfly Economics
by Paul Ormerod • 1998
Crash without a shock: how firms and crowds generate boom, bust, and everything in between.
3.69
223
Butterfly Economics Summary
Butterfly Economics 92%
Crash without a shock: how firms and crowds generate boom, bust, and everything in between.
by Paul Ormerod 1998
3.69
223 ratings
Think Twice
by Michael J. Mauboussin • 2009
Smart people fail at decisions because the mind's ancient shortcuts misfire in modern complexity.
3.93
1k+
Think Twice Summary
Think Twice 92%
Smart people fail at decisions because the mind's ancient shortcuts misfire in modern complexity.
by Michael J. Mauboussin 2009
3.93
1k+ ratings
The Great Mental Models, Volume 3
by Shane Parrish • 2024
Why extra effort eventually backfires, luck isn't random, and one weak link can undo everything.
4.26
195
The Great Mental Models, Volume 3 Summary
The Great Mental Models, Volume 3 92%
Why extra effort eventually backfires, luck isn't random, and one weak link can undo everything.
by Shane Parrish 2024
4.26
195 ratings
Investing
by Robert G. Hagstrom • 2000
Physics, biology, and psychology, woven together, give an investor an edge no financial model can.
4.13
1k+
Investing Summary
Investing 92%
Physics, biology, and psychology, woven together, give an investor an edge no financial model can.
by Robert G. Hagstrom 2000
4.13
1k+ ratings
In a Flight of Starlings
by Giorgio Parisi • 2021
Starlings, spin glasses, and science's messy path: why simple rules create complex systems.
3.41
2k+
In a Flight of Starlings Summary
In a Flight of Starlings 92%
Starlings, spin glasses, and science's messy path: why simple rules create complex systems.
by Giorgio Parisi 2021
3.41
2k+ ratings
The Rules of Contagion
by Adam Kucharski • 2020
Why tweets go viral and banks collapse: the hidden math that governs what spreads.
3.86
2k+
The Rules of Contagion Summary
The Rules of Contagion 92%
Why tweets go viral and banks collapse: the hidden math that governs what spreads.
by Adam Kucharski 2020
3.86
2k+ ratings
The Signals Are Talking
by Amy Webb • 2016
Trends leave footprints at the fringe. A system for reading the future before it becomes obvious.
3.70
641
The Signals Are Talking Summary
The Signals Are Talking 92%
Trends leave footprints at the fringe. A system for reading the future before it becomes obvious.
by Amy Webb 2016
3.70
641 ratings
Harnessing Complexity
by Robert Axelrod • 2000
You can't control a complex system, but you can harness its evolutionary machinery to steer it.
3.73
147
Harnessing Complexity Summary
Harnessing Complexity 92%
You can't control a complex system, but you can harness its evolutionary machinery to steer it.
by Robert Axelrod 2000
3.73
147 ratings
Growth
by Vaclav Smil • 2019
The math of growth is the same everywhere: a curve that bends toward limits, not infinity.
3.87
1k+
Growth Summary
Growth 92%
The math of growth is the same everywhere: a curve that bends toward limits, not infinity.
by Vaclav Smil 2019
3.87
1k+ ratings
Uncharted
by Margaret Heffernan • 2020
Why the best leaders swap predictions for experiments, scenarios, and collective preparation.
3.64
458
Uncharted Summary
Uncharted 92%
Why the best leaders swap predictions for experiments, scenarios, and collective preparation.
by Margaret Heffernan 2020
3.64
458 ratings
Six Degrees
by Duncan J. Watts • 2003
The hidden math that connects everyone: why short chains dominate epidemics, fads, and power grids.
3.90
1k+
Six Degrees Summary
Six Degrees 92%
The hidden math that connects everyone: why short chains dominate epidemics, fads, and power grids.
by Duncan J. Watts 2003
3.90
1k+ ratings
The (Mis) Behavior of Markets
by Benoît B. Mandelbrot • 1997
Ten trading days can hold half a market's losses, and the standard models never see them coming.
4.09
6k+
The (Mis) Behavior of Markets Summary
The (Mis) Behavior of Markets 92%
Ten trading days can hold half a market's losses, and the standard models never see them coming.
by Benoît B. Mandelbrot 1997
4.09
6k+ ratings
How Not to Be Wrong
by Jordan Ellenberg • 2014
Your brain defaults to straight lines. Math reveals the curves that keep you from being wrong.
3.95
22k+
How Not to Be Wrong Summary
How Not to Be Wrong 92%
Your brain defaults to straight lines. Math reveals the curves that keep you from being wrong.
by Jordan Ellenberg 2014
3.95
22k+ ratings
How the World Really Works
by Vaclav Smil • 2022
Both doomers and utopians skip the same thing: modern civilization's staggering material scale.
3.94
14k+
How the World Really Works Summary
How the World Really Works 92%
Both doomers and utopians skip the same thing: modern civilization's staggering material scale.
by Vaclav Smil 2022
3.94
14k+ ratings
Factfulness
by Hans Rosling • 2018
A chimp guessing at random outperforms experts on global trends. The data tells a better story.
4.35
203k+
Factfulness Summary
Factfulness 92%
A chimp guessing at random outperforms experts on global trends. The data tells a better story.
by Hans Rosling 2018
4.35
203k+ ratings
The Mathematics of Life
by Ian Stewart • 2011
Math cracked physics. Now it's unlocking biology, from protein origami to alien life.
3.62
565
The Mathematics of Life Summary
The Mathematics of Life 91%
Math cracked physics. Now it's unlocking biology, from protein origami to alien life.
by Ian Stewart 2011
3.62
565 ratings
The Perfect Swarm
by Len Fisher • 2009
Swarm logic explains why markets crash, crowds surge, and groups can beat experts.
3.50
327
The Perfect Swarm Summary
The Perfect Swarm 91%
Swarm logic explains why markets crash, crowds surge, and groups can beat experts.
by Len Fisher 2009
3.50
327 ratings
The Math of Life and Death
by Kit Yates • 2019
Key mathematical ideas govern medicine, law, and media, and your intuition gets each one wrong.
3.90
2k+
The Math of Life and Death Summary
The Math of Life and Death 91%
Key mathematical ideas govern medicine, law, and media, and your intuition gets each one wrong.
by Kit Yates 2019
3.90
2k+ ratings
Predictive Analytics
by Eric Siegel • 2013
Companies know whether you'll leave, buy, or default before you've decided. Here's how.
3.66
2k+
Predictive Analytics Summary
Predictive Analytics 91%
Companies know whether you'll leave, buy, or default before you've decided. Here's how.
by Eric Siegel 2013
3.66
2k+ ratings
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