Growth

1. Growth is Universal but Fundamentally Finite

Growth is an omnipresent protean reality of our lives: a marker of evolution, of an increase in size and capabilities of our bodies as we reach adulthood, of gains in our collective capacities to exploit the Earth’s resources and to organize our societies in order to secure a higher quality of life.

Ubiquitous reality. Growth, from the geological formation of mountains to the expansion of human societies, is a fundamental aspect of existence. It manifests in diverse forms, from the microscopic to the macroscopic, shaping everything from biological evolution to technological advancement and economic development. However, despite its varied expressions, all growth on Earth is ultimately constrained by finite resources and physical laws.

Inherent limits. Whether observing the slow accretion of stalagmites or the rapid proliferation of bacteria, every growth process eventually encounters boundaries. These limits can be biological, environmental, or physical, dictating that no organism, artifact, or system can expand indefinitely. Understanding these inherent constraints is crucial for a realistic appraisal of past achievements and future possibilities.

Beyond simple metrics. While growth is often quantified by simple metrics like size, capacity, or economic output, its true nature is far more complex. It involves intricate metabolic and regulatory requirements in living systems, and in human endeavors, it encompasses not just quantitative increases but also qualitative improvements in performance, efficiency, and societal well-being. The challenge lies in recognizing both the accomplishments and the inevitable limits of this pervasive phenomenon.

2. Diverse Trajectories Govern All Growth Phenomena

Most growth processes—be they of organisms, artifacts, or complex systems—follow closely one of these S-shaped (sigmoid) growth curves conforming to the logistic (Verhulst) function…

Predictable patterns. Growth, whether natural or anthropogenic, typically follows a limited array of mathematical patterns. These include:

• Linear growth: A constant amount is added per unit of time (e.g., stalagmite accretion, early human height gain).
• Exponential growth: The quantity increases by a constant rate per unit of time, leading to rapid, accelerating gains (e.g., early bacterial colonies, initial adoption of new technologies).
• Hyperbolic growth: A quantity grows towards infinity in a finite time, a temporary and unsustainable trajectory (e.g., pre-1960 global population).
• Confined (Sigmoid) growth: An S-shaped curve where initial slow growth accelerates, then decelerates as it approaches a maximum limit (e.g., organism size, market penetration of innovations).

Temporary exponentiality. Exponential growth, while impressive in its early stages, is always a temporary phenomenon. Physical, environmental, economic, or social constraints inevitably lead to its termination. Misinterpreting temporary exponential trends as perpetual can lead to wildly inaccurate forecasts, as seen in stock market bubbles or overly optimistic technology predictions.

Forecasting challenges. While mathematical functions like the logistic curve can accurately describe completed growth trajectories, their use for long-range forecasting is fraught with peril. Unforeseen innovations or external factors can shift the "asymptote" or maximum limit, rendering previous predictions obsolete. This highlights the dynamic and often unpredictable nature of complex systems.

3. Organismic Growth: Life's Intricate Dance of Limits

The growth trajectory of trees could be thus succinctly described as a mass-scale production of short-lived cells required to ensure structural integrity of the organism and the extraordinary height and longevity of some species.

Metabolic constraints. All biological growth, from the smallest microbes to the largest whales and trees, is fundamentally governed by metabolic processes and environmental limits. Organisms convert energy and matter into new biomass, but this process is constrained by:

• Resource availability (nutrients, water, light)
• Temperature and other environmental tolerances
• Interspecific competition and predation
• Intrinsic genetic programming (e.g., programmed cell death)

Diverse life cycles. Organisms exhibit a wide range of growth strategies and life spans.

• Microbes: Rapid division and short individual cell lives, but species longevity spanning billions of years.
• Plants: Annuals grow rapidly and die; trees can live for millennia, accumulating massive amounts of mostly dead wood.
• Animals: Determinate growth (ceasing at maturity) is common in endotherms; indeterminate growth (continuing throughout life) is seen in many ectotherms.
• Humans: Unique growth pattern with a prolonged childhood, adolescent growth spurt, and exceptional longevity compared to other primates.

Human intervention. Domestication has dramatically altered natural growth rates in crops and livestock, leading to:

• Crops: Centuries of stagnant yields followed by post-1960s "Green Revolution" gains (linear growth) due to breeding, fertilizers, and irrigation.
• Animals: Accelerated maturation and increased body mass in species like pigs and broilers, often at the cost of animal welfare.
• Humans: Significant increases in average height and life expectancy due to improved nutrition and healthcare, but also rising obesity and persistent stunting in disadvantaged populations.

4. Energy Conversion: The Engine of Civilization's Ascent

Global consumption of all primary energies (all fuels and all forms of primary electricity) slightly more than doubled during the 19th century, from just 20 EJ in 1800 to about 44 EJ in 1900, with coal’s share rising from less than 2% in 1800 to 47% in 1900.

From muscle to fossil fuels. Human civilization's growth is inextricably linked to its ability to harness and convert energy. Early societies relied on animate power and biomass. The Industrial Revolution marked a pivotal shift to fossil fuels, unlocking unprecedented energy flows.

• Pre-1800: Waterwheels and windmills provided limited inanimate power.
• 18th Century: Thomas Newcomen's and James Watt's steam engines initiated the fossil fuel era, initially for pumping water from coal mines.
• 19th Century: Steam engines evolved for industrial and transportation uses (ships, railways); water turbines, internal combustion engines (gasoline, diesel), and electric motors emerged.
• 20th Century: Gas turbines, nuclear reactors, and photovoltaic cells were added to the energy mix.

Scaling and efficiency. Energy converters have seen dramatic increases in capacity and efficiency.

• Steam turbines: Max capacity grew from 7.5 kW in 1884 to 1.75 GW by 2017, a five-order-of-magnitude increase.
• Internal Combustion Engines: Automotive gasoline engines saw average power increase 34-fold (1903-2015); marine diesel engines reached 87 MW.
• Electricity generation: Global output grew 16-fold in the 20th century, with average thermal plant efficiency rising from <4% to ~35%.

Modern energy landscape. The energy sector continues to evolve, with new technologies like wind and solar photovoltaics gaining prominence. However, the transition from fossil fuels is slow, and the growth of renewable energy capacity, while impressive, faces its own scaling challenges and efficiency limits. The sheer scale of global energy demand means that even rapid growth in new sources takes time to significantly alter the overall energy mix.

5. Artifacts and Infrastructure: Scaling Human Ingenuity

The richness applies also to the range of artifacts measured by performance capacity, size, or mass.

Diversity and complexity. The world of human artifacts is astonishingly diverse and complex, arguably surpassing the diversity of biological species. From simple tools like levers and pulleys to intricate electronic devices and massive infrastructures, human ingenuity has continuously pushed the boundaries of what can be created.

• Tools: Cranes, for example, evolved from Roman treadwheels lifting a few tons to modern gantry cranes lifting 22,000 tons, a four-order-of-magnitude increase in capacity.
• Structures: Skyscrapers, enabled by steel and elevators, grew from 42m in 1885 to 828m in 2010, with megatall buildings now exceeding 600m. Housing, too, has seen significant growth in size and amenities, particularly in affluent nations.

Infrastructural networks. Modern civilization relies on vast, interconnected infrastructures that have grown immensely in scale and complexity.

• Roads: From Roman paved roads to modern multilane highways, total paved road length in the US increased 16-fold in the 20th century, now approaching saturation.
• Railroads: Rapid expansion in the 19th century, followed by decline in many Western nations, but renewed growth in high-speed rail (e.g., Japan, China).
• Pipelines & Transmission Lines: Essential for energy distribution, these networks have seen dramatic increases in diameter, length, and voltage, enabling global energy flows.

Electronics revolution. Solid-state electronics, driven by Moore's Law, represent an unparalleled growth in performance and miniaturization.

• Microprocessors: Transistor count on a chip increased seven orders of magnitude (1971-2018), doubling every two years.
• Computing speed: From megaflops in the 1960s to petaflops today, a 14-order-of-magnitude gain in maximum performance.
• Consumer devices: Mobile phones, once bulky and rare, are now ubiquitous, lightweight, and multifunctional, with annual sales approaching 2 billion units.

6. Population Dynamics: From Slow Rise to Modern Surge and Decline

Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio. Subsistence increases only in an arithmetical ratio… By that law of our nature which makes food necessary to the life of man, the effects of these two unequal powers must be kept equal.

Malthusian concerns. Thomas Malthus famously argued that unchecked population growth (geometric) would inevitably outstrip food supply (arithmetic), leading to widespread famine. While his specific predictions were spectacularly wrong due to unforeseen agricultural and demographic shifts, his core insight about the potential for exponential growth remains relevant.

Demographic transition. Global population growth has followed a complex trajectory:

• Pre-1800: Millennia of very slow growth (<0.1% annually) due to high birth and death rates.
• 19th-20th Century: Rapid acceleration as death rates fell (due to better nutrition, sanitation, medicine) while birth rates remained high, leading to unprecedented growth.
• Mid-20th Century Peak: Annual growth rate peaked at ~2.1% in the 1960s, adding a billion people in increasingly shorter intervals.
• Late 20th-21st Century: Deceleration as birth rates fell below replacement levels in many regions, leading to a new S-curve.

Aging and decline. Many affluent nations, and increasingly populous Asian countries, are now experiencing rapid population aging and, in some cases, absolute decline.

• Fertility rates: Falling far below the replacement level (2.1 children per woman) in Europe, Japan, China, and South Korea.
• Dependency ratios: Rising sharply, straining pension systems and healthcare.
• Regional disparities: Sub-Saharan Africa remains the only major region with persistently high fertility rates, driving most of the projected global growth.

Uncertain future. Long-range population forecasts are inherently uncertain, particularly regarding future fertility trends and the impact of aging. While global population is projected to reach 9.7 billion by 2050 and 11.1 billion by 2100, the ultimate peak and subsequent trajectory remain debated, with possibilities ranging from stabilization to significant decline.

7. Cities: Concentrated Hubs of Growth and Resource Demand

The energy demand of modern cities requires unprecedented amounts of fuels and electricity delivered with the very high reliability needed to cover not only household and industrial demands but also to power vital infrastructures that operate incessantly...

Urbanization's rise. Cities, initially limited by food and resource supply, have become the dominant form of human settlement.

• Ancient/Medieval: Growth was slow and often ephemeral, constrained by agricultural productivity and transport.
• 19th Century: Industrialization fueled rapid urbanization in Europe and North America.
• Post-WWII: A second wave of urbanization swept Latin America and Asia, with China experiencing the most massive rural-to-urban migration in history.

Megacities and their demands. Megacities (over 10 million inhabitants) are growing rapidly, particularly in the global South.

• Concentration: Tokyo (nearly 39 million) is the largest, followed by New Delhi, Shanghai, and Mumbai.
• Resource intensity: Cities demand enormous, concentrated flows of energy, food, water, and materials, leading to high per capita consumption rates.
• Power density: Urban areas exhibit extremely high power densities (energy flow per unit area), far exceeding natural energy inputs.

Challenges of urban growth. This rapid and concentrated growth creates significant environmental and social burdens.

• Environmental: Urban sprawl, pollution (air, water, waste), heat islands, and loss of biodiversity.
• Social: Income inequality, inadequate housing (slums), strained infrastructure, and public safety concerns.
• Megarisks: Unprecedented concentrations of population and wealth in megacities amplify risks from natural disasters, terrorism, and systemic failures.

8. Economic Growth: A Flawed but Dominant Metric

GDP is clearly a flawed concept but while some proposed alternatives offer better insights, so far none can be seen as decisively superior.

The GDP dilemma. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the universally accepted measure of economic growth, but it is a deeply flawed metric.

• Measurement issues: Reliably calculating GDP, especially historically or across diverse economies, is difficult due to inflation adjustments, informal economies, and data manipulation (e.g., China's inflated figures).
• Qualitative blindness: GDP fails to capture qualitative improvements in goods and services, or the value of unpaid labor (e.g., housework).
• Environmental neglect: It ignores environmental degradation and resource depletion, treating them as "externalities" or even as positive contributions (e.g., cleanup costs adding to GDP).

Historical trends. Preindustrial economic growth was extremely slow, often measured in fractions of a percent per year, or even showing decline.

• Industrial Revolution: Initiated sustained, albeit initially modest, growth in Britain, driven by technological innovation and energy shifts.
• 20th Century Surge: Post-WWII saw unprecedented growth rates in affluent nations, followed by a slowdown after 1973.
• Asian Ascent: Japan, South Korea, and China experienced decades of exceptionally rapid growth, transforming the global economic landscape.

Growth drivers. Economic growth is a complex interplay of factors:

• Capital and labor: Traditional inputs.
• Total Factor Productivity (TFP): The "unexplained residual" reflecting technological advances and knowledge.
• Endogenous factors: Education, health, innovation, government policies, and demographic shifts (e.g., the "demographic dividend").

9. Material Flows: The Physical Foundation of Modernity

Progressively lower mass (and hence decreased cost) of individual products, be they common consumer items or powerful prime movers, has contributed to their increased use as well as to their deployment in heavier (more powerful, larger, more comfortable) machines.

Dematerialization's limits. While technological advances have led to "relative dematerialization" (doing more with less material per unit of output, e.g., lighter engines per unit of power), this has rarely translated into "absolute dematerialization" at the macro level.

• Moore's Curse: The impressive miniaturization and dematerialization in electronics (e.g., microchips) is an exception, not a universal rule for all materials.
• Rebound effect: Efficiency gains often lead to increased consumption, negating absolute reductions in material use (e.g., lighter cars enabling larger, more powerful vehicles).

Massive material demands. Modern economies are built on colossal flows of materials.

• Steel: Global production rose from 30 Mt in 1900 to over 1.6 Gt in 2015, with China now producing two-thirds.
• Cement: Global output increased from 130 Mt in 1950 to 4.1 Gt in 2017, with China accounting for nearly 60%.
• Other materials: Stone, sand, plastics, and specialized elements (e.g., silicon for electronics) are consumed in vast and growing quantities.

Energy-intensive production. Many modern materials, especially high-purity silicon for electronics, require immense energy inputs for their production, often far exceeding the energy embodied in traditional materials like wood. This highlights the hidden energy footprint of seemingly "light" technologies. The sheer scale of global consumption, driven by population growth and rising aspirations, ensures that absolute material demands continue to rise, challenging the notion of a dematerialized economy.

10. The Illusion of Infinite Growth: Confronting Biophysical Limits

Anyone who believes in indefinite growth in anything physical, on a physically finite planet, is either mad or an economist.

Physical impossibility. Continuous material growth, based on ever-greater extraction of finite resources and increased degradation of the biosphere's finite stocks and services, is physically impossible. This fundamental truth, often ignored by mainstream economics, is rooted in the laws of thermodynamics.

• Resource depletion: Finite mineral resources, fresh water, and arable land impose ultimate limits.
• Waste absorption: The biosphere's capacity to absorb pollution and waste is finite.
• Entropy: Energy conversions inevitably increase entropy, meaning useful energy is always lost.

Moore's Curse and techno-optimism. The rapid progress in electronics (Moore's Law) has fostered an unrealistic belief that technological fixes will solve all problems, enabling perpetual growth. However, this "techno-optimism" overlooks:

• Physical limits: Even advanced technologies require material inputs and energy.
• Scale: Miniaturization in one sector does not translate to dematerialization across the entire economy.
• Complexity: Solutions to complex environmental problems are rarely simple or quick.

The "Great Obverse." The immense benefits of modern growth come with a "Great Obverse" – a multitude of environmental costs.

• Ecosystem degradation: Deforestation, soil erosion, depletion of aquifers, loss of biodiversity, and ocean pollution.
• Climate change: Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are driving global warming, with potentially catastrophic consequences.
• Unsustainable consumption: Rising populations and aspirations for higher consumption levels exacerbate these burdens.

11. After Growth: Demise, Adaptation, and the Uncharted Future

The long-term survival of our civilization cannot be assured without setting such limits on the planetary scale.

Diverse post-growth paths. What comes after growth is not a single, predetermined outcome, but a spectrum of possibilities.

• Organisms: Individual death is inevitable, but species can persist for eons through adaptation or cryptobiosis.
• Artifacts/Processes: Decline can be rapid (e.g., cassette tapes) or protracted (e.g., British coal mining), often following normal distribution curves, but sometimes interrupted by new innovations (e.g., US oil production).
• Societies/Empires: Can experience rapid collapse (e.g., Nazi Germany, Soviet Union), gradual decline (e.g., Ottoman Empire), or remarkable resurrection (e.g., Rome, China).

Japan's cautionary tale. Japan, as the first major affluent society to face economic stagnation and rapid population decline, offers a glimpse into the challenges of a post-growth era. Its experience highlights:

• Economic stagnation: Decades of minimal GDP growth after a period of rapid ascent.
• Demographic retreat: A rapidly aging and shrinking population, straining social systems.
• Social shifts: Increased homelessness, changing employment patterns, and a struggle to adapt to new realities.

The civilizational imperative. Modern civilization faces an unprecedented challenge: reconciling continuous economic growth with the biosphere's finite capacity.

• No easy fixes: Techno-optimistic promises of infinite growth or miraculous decoupling are physically impossible.
• Radical change needed: Sustaining human dignity and planetary habitability requires fundamental shifts in consumption patterns, resource management, and economic strategies.
• Uncertain future: The exact trajectory of our civilization remains unwritten, contingent on our collective choices to either continue unsustainable practices or embark on a deliberate path toward a sustainable, low-growth future.

Last updated: October 27, 2025