Plot Summary
Collision on Kabul Tarmac
Nathaniel Phelan, a battle-hardened Special Forces sergeant, stands on the blistering tarmac in Kabul, Afghanistan, expecting a routine security detail. Instead, he's blindsided by the arrival of Isabeau "Izzy" Astor, the only woman he's ever loved—and lost. Their eyes lock, and a decade of unresolved longing, heartbreak, and unfinished business surges between them. Both are stunned, their reunion complicated by Izzy's engagement ring and Nathaniel's duty. The war zone backdrop only heightens the tension, as old wounds resurface and the stakes—personal and political—are higher than ever. Their history is a minefield, and neither is prepared for the emotional detonation that follows.
Flight 826: Fate's First Meeting
Years earlier, a nervous Izzy boards a flight to Atlanta, dreading her window seat and her fear of flying. She's rescued by Nathaniel, a farm boy headed to Army basic training. Their banter is instant, chemistry undeniable, and as the plane takes off, Nathaniel's calm steadies Izzy's panic. They share stories, dreams, and a connection that feels fated. But when disaster strikes and the plane crashes into the Missouri River, their bond is forged in trauma and survival. Nathaniel's steady hand and Izzy's resilience save lives, and as they cling to each other in the aftermath, a lifelong imprint is made—one neither can shake, no matter how far they run.
War Zone Reunion
Back in Kabul, Nathaniel and Izzy are forced into close proximity as he's assigned to protect her. The years have changed them—Izzy is now a polished congressional aide, Nathaniel a man marked by war. Their reunion is fraught with unresolved pain, jealousy over Izzy's engagement, and the ever-present danger of the city. Both struggle to maintain professional distance, but their history simmers beneath every interaction. The war outside mirrors the war within, as they navigate political intrigue, personal regrets, and the undeniable pull that still exists between them.
Crash and Survival
The memory of Flight 826 haunts both Nathaniel and Izzy. The chaos of the crash, the terror of sinking into icy water, and the desperate fight to save others are etched into their souls. Nathaniel's calm leadership and Izzy's quick thinking help evacuate passengers, but the trauma leaves scars—physical and emotional. In the hospital, Izzy's family is absent, but her sister Serena is steadfast. Nathaniel, mistaken for her husband, stays by her side until the Army pulls him away. Their separation is abrupt, leaving both with unanswered questions and a sense of unfinished destiny.
Old Wounds, New Fears
In Kabul, Izzy and Nathaniel's forced partnership reopens old wounds. Izzy's engagement to Jeremy, a political climber, is a constant reminder of what she's tried to move on from. Nathaniel's protective instincts war with his anger and heartbreak. Their conversations are laced with bitterness, regret, and the ache of what might have been. Yet, beneath the surface, their connection is as strong as ever. The war zone amplifies their fears—not just of physical danger, but of losing each other again.
River Rescue and Aftermath
After the crash, Nathaniel and Izzy's lives diverge. Nathaniel is whisked away to basic training, unable to say goodbye. Izzy, recovering from her injuries, is left with only fragments of memory and a longing for the boy who saved her. Both are changed by the experience—Nathaniel haunted by guilt and responsibility, Izzy by abandonment and the realization that her family will never be her anchor. Their brief, intense connection becomes a touchstone, shaping every relationship that follows.
Sister's Secret Mission
Izzy's real reason for being in Afghanistan is revealed: her sister Serena, a photojournalist, is missing in the north. Driven by guilt and love, Izzy manipulates her assignment to search for Serena, dragging Nathaniel into her quest. The mission is perilous, the country unraveling around them. Nathaniel's fear for Izzy's safety clashes with her determination. Their journey is a test of trust, loyalty, and the lengths they'll go for family—and for each other.
Healing and Family Distance
In the aftermath of the crash, Izzy's family's emotional distance becomes painfully clear. Her parents, more concerned with appearances than her wellbeing, leave her to recover alone. Serena is her only true support. Nathaniel, too, is shaped by a troubled family—his abusive father and the loss of his mother. Both Izzy and Nathaniel are driven by a longing for connection and a fear of abandonment, patterns that echo through their adult lives and relationships.
Ghosts of the Past
Both haunted by trauma, Izzy and Nathaniel wrestle with nightmares and guilt. Izzy's fear of flying and recurring dreams of drowning are matched by Nathaniel's battle with PTSD and the ghosts of friends lost in war. Their coping mechanisms—therapy for Izzy, compartmentalization for Nathaniel—are imperfect shields. When they find comfort in each other's arms, it's a rare respite from the pain, but the past is never far behind.
Serendipity in Savannah
Years after the crash, fate intervenes again. On Tybee Island, Georgia, Izzy and Nathaniel cross paths at a bar. The spark is immediate, their connection undiminished by time. They spend a magical day together, sharing dreams and fears, culminating in a promise to write and see where life takes them. Their goodbye is bittersweet, both knowing that timing and circumstance are against them, but hope lingers—a possibility that refuses to die.
Letters, Longing, and Distance
Separated by continents and commitments, Izzy and Nathaniel's relationship unfolds through letters, emails, and rare visits. Each is the other's anchor, their correspondence a lifeline through the chaos of war and the grind of law school. Yet, the distance takes its toll. Missed connections, misunderstandings, and the demands of their respective worlds threaten to erode what they've built. Still, neither can let go, clinging to the hope of a future together.
A Promise in the Waves
Finally, they reunite for a week in Fiji—a long-awaited escape from reality. The days are filled with laughter, passion, and the illusion of a life together. But beneath the surface, old fears resurface. Nathaniel's nightmares and emotional walls, Izzy's longing for more than fleeting moments, and the looming shadow of his military career threaten their happiness. They part with promises and plans, but the question remains: will they ever truly have their shot?
Sister Found, Sister Lost
In Afghanistan, Izzy and Nathaniel locate Serena, but she refuses to leave, committed to her work and her interpreter, Taj. Izzy is torn between her duty to her sister and her own safety. Nathaniel, desperate to protect Izzy, is forced to confront the limits of his control. The sisters' goodbye is wrenching, a testament to the sacrifices demanded by love and war. As the country collapses, every decision carries the weight of life and death.
Choices and Consequences
Izzy's engagement to Jeremy unravels in the face of betrayal and self-realization. Nathaniel's presence forces her to confront the truth: she's been settling for less, afraid to reach for what she truly wants. Jeremy's manipulations and her parents' expectations are finally cast aside. Izzy chooses herself—and, implicitly, Nathaniel—setting the stage for a reckoning with the past and a hope for the future.
Breaking the Engagement
The confrontation with Jeremy is cathartic. Izzy reclaims her agency, returning his ring and rejecting the life mapped out for her by others. The act is both liberating and terrifying, as she steps into the unknown, guided only by her heart and the lessons hard-won through pain and loss. Nathaniel, witnessing her strength, is both proud and fearful—knowing that loving her means risking everything.
Almost, Always, Never
Plans for a reunion in Palau are derailed when Nathaniel, consumed by grief over a friend's death, fails to show. Izzy, devastated, is forced to confront the reality that love is not always enough. Both are trapped by circumstance and their own fears, unable to bridge the gap between them. The pain of almost—of always being just out of reach—becomes a defining feature of their story.
Kandahar Under Fire
As Afghanistan falls, Nathaniel and Izzy are caught in the chaos of Kandahar. Rockets rain down, and survival becomes the only goal. Nathaniel's training and love for Izzy drive him to extraordinary lengths to protect her and the girls' chess team they're evacuating. The experience is harrowing, a stark reminder of the fragility of life and the depth of their bond. In the aftermath, choices must be made—who to save, who to leave behind.
Missed Chances, Missed Flights
Back in the States, Izzy and Nathaniel's paths diverge again. Miscommunication, trauma, and the demands of their careers keep them apart. Each is haunted by the sense of missed opportunities, the knowledge that happiness was within reach but slipped away. Their love endures, but so does the pain of never quite getting it right.
Kabul's Last Stand
As Kabul falls, Nathaniel and Izzy face their greatest challenge. The embassy is overrun, flights are canceled, and desperation mounts. Nathaniel must choose between duty and love, ultimately ensuring Izzy's escape even as he stays behind. Their goodbye is raw, a promise to find each other again. The city's collapse mirrors the collapse of everything they've known, but hope flickers—a belief that their story isn't over.
The Final Goodbye
Izzy boards the last plane out, Serena and Taj by her side thanks to Nathaniel's intervention. The cost of survival is steep—guilt, grief, and the knowledge that not everyone made it out. Nathaniel, left behind, confronts his own demons, finally seeking help for his PTSD and the guilt that has haunted him for years. Both are changed, but the promise of a future together remains—a shot they're finally ready to take.
The Plane Home
Months later, Izzy and Nathaniel reunite on a flight to the Maldives, both having left behind the careers and lives that kept them apart. Their love, tested by war, distance, and loss, is finally given the space to flourish. They choose each other, not as a possibility, but as a certainty. The journey home is both literal and metaphorical—a return to themselves and to the love that has always been their true north.
Taking the Shot
In the epilogue, Nathaniel and Izzy have built a life in Maine, surrounded by pine trees and peace. Their journey has been anything but easy, marked by trauma, sacrifice, and the relentless pull of fate. But together, they've found healing, purpose, and a love that endures. The story ends not with a grand gesture, but with the quiet, everyday acts of devotion that define a lifetime—a promise kept, a shot finally taken, and a future embraced.
Epilogue: Pine Trees Sway
Years later, Nathaniel and Izzy are settled in Maine, their days filled with simple joys and the comfort of each other's presence. The scars of the past remain, but they are no longer wounds—just reminders of the battles fought and won. Surrounded by the swaying pine trees, they have everything they ever wanted: each other, a home, and the peace that once seemed impossible. Their story is a testament to resilience, the power of love, and the belief that even the most broken hearts can find their way home.
Characters
Nathaniel Phelan
Nathaniel is a man forged in adversity—a farm boy turned Special Forces sergeant, marked by trauma, loss, and a fierce sense of duty. His childhood was marred by an abusive father and the early loss of his mother, instilling in him a deep need to protect and a fear of becoming like the man he despises. Nathaniel's love for Izzy is the one constant in his life, a beacon through the darkness of war and personal demons. He is loyal to a fault, willing to sacrifice his own happiness for the safety of those he loves. His journey is one of healing—learning to let go of guilt, seek help for his PTSD, and finally choose a life with Izzy. His development is a testament to resilience, vulnerability, and the transformative power of love.
Isabeau "Izzy" Astor
Izzy is intelligent, compassionate, and driven by a desire to make a difference. Scarred by a traumatic plane crash and the emotional neglect of her parents, she clings to her sister Serena as her true family. Her relationship with Nathaniel is both her greatest joy and deepest pain—a love marked by missed chances and the ache of almost. Izzy's journey is one of self-discovery, learning to assert her needs, break free from others' expectations, and choose herself. Her loyalty to family, especially Serena, drives her into danger, but her courage and empathy are unwavering. Ultimately, Izzy's growth is about embracing vulnerability, letting go of the past, and daring to take the shot at happiness.
Serena Astor
Serena is Izzy's anchor—a protective, independent photojournalist committed to bearing witness to the world's tragedies. Her dedication to her work often puts her in harm's way, but her loyalty to Izzy is unshakeable. Serena's presence is a source of strength and comfort, the one family member Izzy can always count on. Her own choices force Izzy to confront the limits of love and the necessity of letting go. Serena's character embodies courage, integrity, and the importance of fighting for what matters, even at great personal cost.
Jeremy Covington
Jeremy is Izzy's fiancé—a man chosen for his pedigree, ambition, and the approval he brings from Izzy's parents. Beneath the polished exterior lies insecurity, manipulation, and a willingness to betray. His infidelity and emotional distance force Izzy to confront the ways she's been settling for less, using him as a shield against the vulnerability of true love. Jeremy represents the path not taken—the safe, expected life that Izzy ultimately rejects in favor of authenticity and passion.
Torres
Torres is Nathaniel's closest friend and fellow soldier, a grounding presence amid chaos. He is supportive, pragmatic, and unafraid to challenge Nathaniel's choices. Torres's own ambitions and struggles mirror Nathaniel's, but his ability to see clearly and speak truth is invaluable. He encourages Nathaniel to seek help, let go of guilt, and fight for happiness. Torres embodies the importance of chosen family and the strength found in true friendship.
Serena's Interpreter, Taj Barech
Taj is Serena's interpreter in Afghanistan, risking his life to help both her and the American mission. His journey through the labyrinth of visa applications and checkpoints highlights the often-overlooked sacrifices of local allies. Taj's loyalty and bravery are instrumental in Serena's survival, and his story underscores the human cost of war and the moral imperative to protect those who risk everything for others.
Graham, Elston, Parker, and the Team
Nathaniel's Special Forces teammates are a diverse group, each bringing unique strengths and personalities. They are united by loyalty, professionalism, and a shared understanding of the burdens they carry. Their camaraderie provides both comic relief and emotional support, grounding Nathaniel and reminding him that he is never truly alone. Their presence is a testament to the bonds forged in adversity and the unspoken love that exists among those who serve together.
Nathaniel's Father
Nathaniel's father is a source of pain and fear—a man whose violence and neglect shape Nathaniel's deepest insecurities. The legacy of abuse haunts Nathaniel, fueling his determination to be different and his struggle to accept love. The confrontation with his father after his mother's death is a pivotal moment, allowing Nathaniel to break the cycle and choose a new path.
Nathaniel's Mother
Though her presence is mostly felt in memory, Nathaniel's mother represents the love and safety he longs for. Her death is a wound that never fully heals, motivating Nathaniel's choices and his search for belonging. Her influence lingers, a reminder of what was lost and what can still be found.
Julian "Rowell" Torres
Julian is Nathaniel's friend and fellow soldier, whose death during Special Forces selection becomes a source of profound guilt. Nathaniel's inability to save him haunts him, fueling his reluctance to seek happiness and his belief that he is unworthy of love. Julian's memory is both a burden and a catalyst for change, ultimately leading Nathaniel to seek help and choose life.
Plot Devices
Dual Timeline Structure
The novel employs a dual timeline, alternating between the present-day chaos of Kabul and the formative events of Nathaniel and Izzy's past. This structure allows the reader to experience the evolution of their relationship, the impact of trauma, and the weight of missed opportunities. The interplay of timelines builds suspense, deepens emotional resonance, and underscores the theme that the past is never truly past.
Fate and Recurring Motifs
Fate is a central plot device, manifesting in repeated chance meetings, near-misses, and the persistent sense that Nathaniel and Izzy are meant to be. Motifs such as plane crashes, letters, and the "twelve-inch rule" recur throughout, symbolizing both the randomness of life and the choices that define us. The story explores the tension between destiny and agency, asking whether love is a matter of timing or will.
Trauma and Healing
Both protagonists are shaped by trauma—Izzy by the plane crash and family neglect, Nathaniel by war and loss. Their coping mechanisms, from therapy to compartmentalization, are explored in depth. The narrative does not shy away from the realities of PTSD, survivor's guilt, and the long road to healing. The process of seeking help, breaking cycles of abuse, and learning to accept love is central to their arcs.
Letters and Communication
Letters, emails, and highlighted books serve as both plot device and symbol. They bridge the distance between Nathaniel and Izzy, allowing intimacy to flourish even when they are worlds apart. The written word becomes a lifeline, a way to say what cannot be spoken, and a testament to the endurance of love.
War as Backdrop and Metaphor
The war in Afghanistan is more than a setting—it is a metaphor for the battles waged within. The chaos, danger, and moral ambiguity of the conflict reflect the protagonists' struggles with fear, guilt, and the search for meaning. The collapse of Kabul parallels the collapse of old identities and the necessity of building something new from the ashes.
Missed Opportunities and Second Chances
The story is structured around missed chances—flights not taken, proposals declined, words left unsaid. Yet, it is also a story of second chances, of the courage to try again, and the belief that it is never too late to choose happiness. The recurring motif of "taking the shot" encapsulates this theme, urging the characters—and the reader—to seize the moment before it slips away.
Analysis
"In the Likely Event" is a sweeping, emotionally charged exploration of love, trauma, and the relentless pull of fate. Rebecca Yarros crafts a narrative that is both intimate and epic, using the backdrop of war and disaster to illuminate the deepest corners of the human heart. The novel interrogates the ways we are shaped by our past—by family, by loss, by the moments that break us and the ones that make us whole. At its core, the story is about the courage to choose: to choose love over fear, vulnerability over safety, and hope over resignation. Through Nathaniel and Izzy's journey, Yarros examines the cost of settling for less, the necessity of healing, and the transformative power of second chances. The book's modern resonance lies in its honest portrayal of PTSD, the complexities of military life, and the challenges of loving across distance and difference. Ultimately, "In the Likely Event" is a testament to resilience—the belief that, even in the face of overwhelming odds, it is possible to find peace, belonging, and a love that endures.
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