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Books like How to Expect the Unexpected

How Not to Be Wrong
by Jordan Ellenberg • 2014
Your brain defaults to straight lines. Math reveals the curves that keep you from being wrong.
3.95
22k+
🧮 Mathematical Thinking📊 Statistical Thinking🧠 Cognitive Biases🎲 Probability And Risk🔄 Bayesian Thinking
How Not to Be Wrong Summary
How Not to Be Wrong 97%
Your brain defaults to straight lines. Math reveals the curves that keep you from being wrong.
by Jordan Ellenberg 2014
3.95
22k+ ratings
🧮 Mathematical Thinking📊 Statistical Thinking🧠 Cognitive Biases🎲 Probability And Risk🔄 Bayesian Thinking
Superforecasting
by Philip E. Tetlock • 2015
30% more accurate than CIA analysts: the trainable habits that predict the future.
4.08
22k+
🔮 Forecasting🎲 Probabilistic Thinking🧠 Cognitive Biases🤲 Intellectual Humility🌱 Growth Mindset
Superforecasting Summary
Superforecasting 96%
30% more accurate than CIA analysts: the trainable habits that predict the future.
by Philip E. Tetlock 2015
4.08
22k+ ratings
🔮 Forecasting🎲 Probabilistic Thinking🧠 Cognitive Biases🤲 Intellectual Humility🌱 Growth Mindset
Chancing It
by Robert Matthews • 2017
How a formula from 17th-century gambling can tell you what any decision is worth.
3.81
227
🎲 Probability Theory📊 Statistical Thinking🧮 Bayesian Reasoning⚠️ Risk Assessment🧠 Cognitive Biases
Chancing It Summary
Chancing It 96%
How a formula from 17th-century gambling can tell you what any decision is worth.
by Robert Matthews 2017
3.81
227 ratings
🎲 Probability Theory📊 Statistical Thinking🧮 Bayesian Reasoning⚠️ Risk Assessment🧠 Cognitive Biases
Future Babble
by Dan Gardner • 2010
Confidence sells. Accuracy doesn't. Why the loudest experts are the worst forecasters.
3.79
737
🧠 Cognitive Biases📉 Expert Forecasting🌫️ Uncertainty Management💸 Behavioral Economics⚖️ Decision Science
Future Babble Summary
Future Babble 96%
Confidence sells. Accuracy doesn't. Why the loudest experts are the worst forecasters.
by Dan Gardner 2010
3.79
737 ratings
🧠 Cognitive Biases📉 Expert Forecasting🌫️ Uncertainty Management💸 Behavioral Economics⚖️ Decision Science
Risk Intelligence
by Dylan Evans • 2012
Your probability estimates are worse than you think. It's trainable, and the payoff is real.
3.71
256
📊 Risk Literacy🧠 Behavioral Economics🧩 Cognitive Biases🎲 Probability Estimation📈 Bayesian Thinking
Risk Intelligence Summary
Risk Intelligence 96%
Your probability estimates are worse than you think. It's trainable, and the payoff is real.
by Dylan Evans 2012
3.71
256 ratings
📊 Risk Literacy🧠 Behavioral Economics🧩 Cognitive Biases🎲 Probability Estimation📈 Bayesian Thinking
Rationality
by Steven Pinker • 2021
How a single mental toolkit built science, law, and democracy, and why it keeps short-circuiting.
3.84
7k+
🧠 Cognitive Biases📊 Bayesian Reasoning🎯 Game Theory📈 Statistical Thinking🛡️ Motivated Reasoning
Rationality Summary
Rationality 96%
How a single mental toolkit built science, law, and democracy, and why it keeps short-circuiting.
by Steven Pinker 2021
3.84
7k+ ratings
🧠 Cognitive Biases📊 Bayesian Reasoning🎯 Game Theory📈 Statistical Thinking🛡️ Motivated Reasoning
Risk Savvy
by Gerd Gigerenzer • 2013
Most real life is uncertainty, not risk. Simple decision rules beat complex models there.
4.01
2k+
🧠 Decision Science🔍 Cognitive Biases📊 Risk Literacy📏 Simple Rules🌫️ Uncertainty
Risk Savvy Summary
Risk Savvy 96%
Most real life is uncertainty, not risk. Simple decision rules beat complex models there.
by Gerd Gigerenzer 2013
4.01
2k+ ratings
🧠 Decision Science🔍 Cognitive Biases📊 Risk Literacy📏 Simple Rules🌫️ Uncertainty
Think Twice
by Michael J. Mauboussin • 2009
Smart people fail at decisions because the mind's ancient shortcuts misfire in modern complexity.
3.93
1k+
🧠 Behavioral Economics🔍 Cognitive Biases📊 Decision Science🔗 Systems Thinking🎲 Luck Vs Skill
Think Twice Summary
Think Twice 96%
Smart people fail at decisions because the mind's ancient shortcuts misfire in modern complexity.
by Michael J. Mauboussin 2009
3.93
1k+ ratings
🧠 Behavioral Economics🔍 Cognitive Biases📊 Decision Science🔗 Systems Thinking🎲 Luck Vs Skill
The Flaw of Averages
by Sam L. Savage • 2009
A single average can sink your plan. The missing skill: thinking in distributions.
3.86
574
🧠 Decision Science🎲 Probabilistic Thinking⚠️ Risk Management🧩 Cognitive Biases🎰 Monte Carlo Methods
The Flaw of Averages Summary
The Flaw of Averages 96%
A single average can sink your plan. The missing skill: thinking in distributions.
by Sam L. Savage 2009
3.86
574 ratings
🧠 Decision Science🎲 Probabilistic Thinking⚠️ Risk Management🧩 Cognitive Biases🎰 Monte Carlo Methods
The Great Mental Models Volume 3
by Rhiannon Beaubien • 2021
The world runs on feedback loops and bottlenecks you never see. The models that expose them.
4.25
832
🧠 Mental Models🔄 Systems Thinking🛡️ Risk Management⚡ Optimization🎲 Randomness
The Great Mental Models Volume 3 Summary
The Great Mental Models Volume 3 95%
The world runs on feedback loops and bottlenecks you never see. The models that expose them.
by Rhiannon Beaubien 2021
4.25
832 ratings
🧠 Mental Models🔄 Systems Thinking🛡️ Risk Management⚡ Optimization🎲 Randomness
The Improbability Principle
by David J. Hand • 2014
Why do extremely unlikely events happen daily? A few hidden laws make the extraordinary routine.
3.73
2k+
🎲 Probability Theory⚡ Rare Events🧠 Cognitive Biases📊 Statistical Thinking🤔 Critical Thinking
The Improbability Principle Summary
The Improbability Principle 95%
Why do extremely unlikely events happen daily? A few hidden laws make the extraordinary routine.
by David J. Hand 2014
3.73
2k+ ratings
🎲 Probability Theory⚡ Rare Events🧠 Cognitive Biases📊 Statistical Thinking🤔 Critical Thinking
Everything Is Predictable
by Tom Chivers • 2024
The math behind your spam filter also reveals that your brain is hallucinating reality.
4.02
1k+
🧮 Bayesian Thinking🎲 Probability Theory🧠 Predictive Processing🔮 Superforecasting🔬 Metascience
Everything Is Predictable Summary
Everything Is Predictable 95%
The math behind your spam filter also reveals that your brain is hallucinating reality.
by Tom Chivers 2024
4.02
1k+ ratings
🧮 Bayesian Thinking🎲 Probability Theory🧠 Predictive Processing🔮 Superforecasting🔬 Metascience
The Drunkard's Walk
by Leonard Mlodinow • 2008
Success isn't as earned as you think. Probability decides more outcomes than talent ever does.
3.95
25k+
🎲 Probability And Chance🧠 Cognitive Biases💰 Behavioral Economics📊 Statistical Reasoning🎯 Randomness And Luck
The Drunkard's Walk Summary
The Drunkard's Walk 95%
Success isn't as earned as you think. Probability decides more outcomes than talent ever does.
by Leonard Mlodinow 2008
3.95
25k+ ratings
🎲 Probability And Chance🧠 Cognitive Biases💰 Behavioral Economics📊 Statistical Reasoning🎯 Randomness And Luck
Algorithms to Live By
by Brian Christian • 2016
When to settle, when to quit, when to trust chance: computer science already found the answers.
4.12
35k+
🧠 Algorithmic Thinking🔬 Decision Science📊 Bayesian Reasoning🧩 Heuristics💭 Overthinking
Algorithms to Live By Summary
Algorithms to Live By 95%
When to settle, when to quit, when to trust chance: computer science already found the answers.
by Brian Christian 2016
4.12
35k+ ratings
🧠 Algorithmic Thinking🔬 Decision Science📊 Bayesian Reasoning🧩 Heuristics💭 Overthinking
The Future of Everything
by David Orrell • 2006
Weather, markets, pandemics: the science of why forecasts fail, and what to build instead.
3.67
117
🔮 Forecasting🕸️ Complexity Science⚠️ Limits Of Prediction🔗 Systems Thinking📉 Economic Forecasting
The Future of Everything Summary
The Future of Everything 95%
Weather, markets, pandemics: the science of why forecasts fail, and what to build instead.
by David Orrell 2006
3.67
117 ratings
🔮 Forecasting🕸️ Complexity Science⚠️ Limits Of Prediction🔗 Systems Thinking📉 Economic Forecasting
Maxims for Thinking Analytically
by Dan Levy • 2021
Extreme cases and simple division: Harvard legend's toolkit for sharper thinking amid uncertainty.
3.92
583
🧠 Decision Science📋 Policy Analysis🎲 Probabilistic Thinking🔍 Cognitive Biases🧩 Mental Models
Maxims for Thinking Analytically Summary
Maxims for Thinking Analytically 95%
Extreme cases and simple division: Harvard legend's toolkit for sharper thinking amid uncertainty.
by Dan Levy 2021
3.92
583 ratings
🧠 Decision Science📋 Policy Analysis🎲 Probabilistic Thinking🔍 Cognitive Biases🧩 Mental Models
Framers
by Kenneth Cukier • 2021
AI can't ask 'what if.' That single gap explains why humans remain irreplaceable.
3.53
568
🧠 Mental Models🔬 Decision Science🤖 Human Vs Machine🔗 Causal Reasoning🌐 Cognitive Diversity
Framers Summary
Framers 95%
AI can't ask 'what if.' That single gap explains why humans remain irreplaceable.
by Kenneth Cukier 2021
3.53
568 ratings
🧠 Mental Models🔬 Decision Science🤖 Human Vs Machine🔗 Causal Reasoning🌐 Cognitive Diversity
Fooled by Randomness
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb • 2001
Ten thousand coin-flippers produce three hundred geniuses. The biographies write themselves.
4.08
72k+
📈 Financial Markets🔬 Behavioral Economics🧠 Cognitive Biases🎲 Risk Management🔍 Decision Quality
Fooled by Randomness Summary
Fooled by Randomness 95%
Ten thousand coin-flippers produce three hundred geniuses. The biographies write themselves.
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb 2001
4.08
72k+ ratings
📈 Financial Markets🔬 Behavioral Economics🧠 Cognitive Biases🎲 Risk Management🔍 Decision Quality
Irrationality
by Stuart Sutherland • 1992
Predictable mental errors everyone makes, from overconfidence to throwing good money after bad.
3.91
2k+
🧠 Cognitive Biases🔍 Decision Science📊 Statistical Thinking👥 Social Conformity🎭 Emotional Biases
Irrationality Summary
Irrationality 95%
Predictable mental errors everyone makes, from overconfidence to throwing good money after bad.
by Stuart Sutherland 1992
3.91
2k+ ratings
🧠 Cognitive Biases🔍 Decision Science📊 Statistical Thinking👥 Social Conformity🎭 Emotional Biases
Perfectly Confident
by Don A. Moore • 2020
Confidence is a measurement problem: not how sure you feel, but how wrong you might be.
3.67
315
🧠 Cognitive Biases💰 Behavioral Economics📊 Decision Science🎲 Probabilistic Thinking⚠️ Risk Assessment
Perfectly Confident Summary
Perfectly Confident 95%
Confidence is a measurement problem: not how sure you feel, but how wrong you might be.
by Don A. Moore 2020
3.67
315 ratings
🧠 Cognitive Biases💰 Behavioral Economics📊 Decision Science🎲 Probabilistic Thinking⚠️ Risk Assessment
The Great Mental Models, Volume 3
by Shane Parrish • 2024
Why extra effort eventually backfires, luck isn't random, and one weak link can undo everything.
4.26
195
🧠 Mental Models🔄 Systems Thinking📊 Decision Science🔁 Feedback Loops📈 Compounding
The Great Mental Models, Volume 3 Summary
The Great Mental Models, Volume 3 95%
Why extra effort eventually backfires, luck isn't random, and one weak link can undo everything.
by Shane Parrish 2024
4.26
195 ratings
🧠 Mental Models🔄 Systems Thinking📊 Decision Science🔁 Feedback Loops📈 Compounding
100 mental models
by Wisdom Theory
Why a hundred borrowed concepts from physics, economics, and psychology beat expertise alone.
4.00
105
🧠 Mental Models🧩 Cognitive Biases🧭 Decision Frameworks🔄 Systems Thinking📉 Behavioral Economics
100 mental models Summary
100 mental models 95%
Why a hundred borrowed concepts from physics, economics, and psychology beat expertise alone.
by Wisdom Theory
4.00
105 ratings
🧠 Mental Models🧩 Cognitive Biases🧭 Decision Frameworks🔄 Systems Thinking📉 Behavioral Economics
Farsighted
by Steven Johnson • 2018
Why our biggest choices flunk the pro/con list, and what works: mapping, rehearsal, fiction.
3.55
2k+
🧠 Decision Science🗺️ Strategic Planning⏳ Long-Term Thinking🔮 Scenario Planning📊 Behavioral Economics
Farsighted Summary
Farsighted 95%
Why our biggest choices flunk the pro/con list, and what works: mapping, rehearsal, fiction.
by Steven Johnson 2018
3.55
2k+ ratings
🧠 Decision Science🗺️ Strategic Planning⏳ Long-Term Thinking🔮 Scenario Planning📊 Behavioral Economics
The Norm Chronicles
by Michael Blastland • 2014
Why we fear plane crashes but not burgers: the stories and numbers behind your worst instincts.
3.59
564
🗣️ Risk Communication🎲 Probability Literacy🧠 Behavioral Economics🔍 Cognitive Biases📊 Health Statistics
The Norm Chronicles Summary
The Norm Chronicles 95%
Why we fear plane crashes but not burgers: the stories and numbers behind your worst instincts.
by Michael Blastland 2014
3.59
564 ratings
🗣️ Risk Communication🎲 Probability Literacy🧠 Behavioral Economics🔍 Cognitive Biases📊 Health Statistics
Innumeracy
by John Allen Paulos • 1988
A lottery ticket, a medical test, a sensational statistic: when smart people can't do the math.
3.78
5k+
🎲 Probability🔢 Numerical Reasoning🧠 Cognitive Biases😰 Math Anxiety🪄 Pseudoscience
Innumeracy Summary
Innumeracy 95%
A lottery ticket, a medical test, a sensational statistic: when smart people can't do the math.
by John Allen Paulos 1988
3.78
5k+ ratings
🎲 Probability🔢 Numerical Reasoning🧠 Cognitive Biases😰 Math Anxiety🪄 Pseudoscience
Third Millennium Thinking
by Saul Perlmutter • 2024
Probability over certainty, groups over lone genius: a Nobel physicist's toolkit for clear thinking.
3.66
339
🔬 Scientific Thinking🧠 Cognitive Biases🎲 Probabilistic Thinking👥 Collective Intelligence📰 Information Literacy
Third Millennium Thinking Summary
Third Millennium Thinking 95%
Probability over certainty, groups over lone genius: a Nobel physicist's toolkit for clear thinking.
by Saul Perlmutter 2024
3.66
339 ratings
🔬 Scientific Thinking🧠 Cognitive Biases🎲 Probabilistic Thinking👥 Collective Intelligence📰 Information Literacy
The Failure of Risk Management
by Douglas W. Hubbard • 2009
Standard risk management makes decisions worse than guessing. The fix is simpler than you think.
3.95
413
🛡️ Risk Management📊 Quantitative Risk🧠 Cognitive Biases🔍 Decision Analysis📐 Bayesian Methods
The Failure of Risk Management Summary
The Failure of Risk Management 94%
Standard risk management makes decisions worse than guessing. The fix is simpler than you think.
by Douglas W. Hubbard 2009
3.95
413 ratings
🛡️ Risk Management📊 Quantitative Risk🧠 Cognitive Biases🔍 Decision Analysis📐 Bayesian Methods
Ergodicity
by Luca Dellanna • 2020
Why a bet that works for a hundred people destroys the one who repeats it.
4.05
314
🛡️ Risk Management🧠 Decision Theory🔬 Behavioral Economics🎲 Probability Thinking⏳ Long-Term Thinking
Ergodicity Summary
Ergodicity 94%
Why a bet that works for a hundred people destroys the one who repeats it.
by Luca Dellanna 2020
4.05
314 ratings
🛡️ Risk Management🧠 Decision Theory🔬 Behavioral Economics🎲 Probability Thinking⏳ Long-Term Thinking
How to Make the World Add Up
by Tim Harford • 2020
Bad statistics weaponize your feelings. Ten rules for seeing what the numbers actually say.
4.12
8k+
🧮 Statistical Literacy🧠 Cognitive Biases🔍 Data Skepticism💡 Behavioral Economics💰 Economic Thinking
How to Make the World Add Up Summary
How to Make the World Add Up 94%
Bad statistics weaponize your feelings. Ten rules for seeing what the numbers actually say.
by Tim Harford 2020
4.12
8k+ ratings
🧮 Statistical Literacy🧠 Cognitive Biases🔍 Data Skepticism💡 Behavioral Economics💰 Economic Thinking
Calculated Risks
by Gerd Gigerenzer • 2002
How to tell when a percentage misleads you, and the reframing that reveals the truth.
3.96
671
📊 Statistical Literacy⚠️ Risk Communication🧠 Cognitive Biases🩺 Medical Decision Making🎲 Bayesian Reasoning
Calculated Risks Summary
Calculated Risks 94%
How to tell when a percentage misleads you, and the reframing that reveals the truth.
by Gerd Gigerenzer 2002
3.96
671 ratings
📊 Statistical Literacy⚠️ Risk Communication🧠 Cognitive Biases🩺 Medical Decision Making🎲 Bayesian Reasoning
Numbers Rule Your World
by Fung • 2010
Statistics reveals why lines feel shorter, credit scores work, and safe airlines are an illusion.
3.56
1k+
📊 Statistical Literacy📈 Data Interpretation🎲 Probability Thinking⚠️ Risk Perception📉 Beyond Averages
Numbers Rule Your World Summary
Numbers Rule Your World 94%
Statistics reveals why lines feel shorter, credit scores work, and safe airlines are an illusion.
by Fung 2010
3.56
1k+ ratings
📊 Statistical Literacy📈 Data Interpretation🎲 Probability Thinking⚠️ Risk Perception📉 Beyond Averages
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
by Richards J. Heuer Jr. • 2005
CIA's textbook for outthinking your own limits: structured methods that catch what intuition misses.
4.27
1k+
🕵️ Intelligence Analysis🧠 Cognitive Biases📊 Structured Analysis🗺️ Mental Models🧪 Cognitive Psychology
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis Summary
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis 94%
CIA's textbook for outthinking your own limits: structured methods that catch what intuition misses.
by Richards J. Heuer Jr. 2005
4.27
1k+ ratings
🕵️ Intelligence Analysis🧠 Cognitive Biases📊 Structured Analysis🗺️ Mental Models🧪 Cognitive Psychology
Thinking 101
by Woo-Kyoung Ahn • 2022
Your brain is wired for survival, not accuracy, and its errors are predictable.
3.82
2k+
🧠 Cognitive Biases📉 Behavioral Economics🔗 Causal Reasoning📊 Statistical Thinking😟 Negativity Bias
Thinking 101 Summary
Thinking 101 94%
Your brain is wired for survival, not accuracy, and its errors are predictable.
by Woo-Kyoung Ahn 2022
3.82
2k+ ratings
🧠 Cognitive Biases📉 Behavioral Economics🔗 Causal Reasoning📊 Statistical Thinking😟 Negativity Bias
Thinking and Deciding
by Jonathan Baron • 2007
A psychologist's guide to mental shortcuts that fail, and the rules that repair them.
4.06
320
🧠 Cognitive Biases🧱 Mental Models📊 Decision Frameworks⚙️ Productivity Methods🧩 Problem Solving
Thinking and Deciding Summary
Thinking and Deciding 94%
A psychologist's guide to mental shortcuts that fail, and the rules that repair them.
by Jonathan Baron 2007
4.06
320 ratings
🧠 Cognitive Biases🧱 Mental Models📊 Decision Frameworks⚙️ Productivity Methods🧩 Problem Solving
A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper
by John Allen Paulos • 1997
The morning paper rests on hidden math. A mathematician reveals the numbers that change the story.
3.60
1k+
🧮 Popular Mathematics📰 Media Literacy🧠 Cognitive Biases📊 Statistical Thinking🎲 Probability And Chance
A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper Summary
A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper 94%
The morning paper rests on hidden math. A mathematician reveals the numbers that change the story.
by John Allen Paulos 1997
3.60
1k+ ratings
🧮 Popular Mathematics📰 Media Literacy🧠 Cognitive Biases📊 Statistical Thinking🎲 Probability And Chance
Good Thinking
by David Robert Grimes • 2021
Bad logic corrupts medicine, politics, and media. A physicist shows how to spot it.
4.29
312
🧠 Cognitive Biases⚖️ Logical Fallacies🔬 Scientific Skepticism💭 Critical Thinking📰 Media Literacy
Good Thinking Summary
Good Thinking 94%
Bad logic corrupts medicine, politics, and media. A physicist shows how to spot it.
by David Robert Grimes 2021
4.29
312 ratings
🧠 Cognitive Biases⚖️ Logical Fallacies🔬 Scientific Skepticism💭 Critical Thinking📰 Media Literacy
Rock Breaks Scissors
by William Poundstone • 2014
Why you can outguess anyone: the predictable mistakes we make when we try to be random.
3.50
772
📈 Behavioral Economics🧩 Cognitive Biases🔍 Pattern Recognition🎲 Applied Probability📝 Test-Taking Strategies
Rock Breaks Scissors Summary
Rock Breaks Scissors 94%
Why you can outguess anyone: the predictable mistakes we make when we try to be random.
by William Poundstone 2014
3.50
772 ratings
📈 Behavioral Economics🧩 Cognitive Biases🔍 Pattern Recognition🎲 Applied Probability📝 Test-Taking Strategies
Factfulness
by Hans Rosling • 2018
A chimp guessing at random outperforms experts on global trends. The data tells a better story.
4.35
203k+
🌏 Global Development🧠 Cognitive Biases📊 Data Literacy📰 Negativity Bias⚠️ Risk Perception
Factfulness Summary
Factfulness 94%
A chimp guessing at random outperforms experts on global trends. The data tells a better story.
by Hans Rosling 2018
4.35
203k+ ratings
🌏 Global Development🧠 Cognitive Biases📊 Data Literacy📰 Negativity Bias⚠️ Risk Perception
Fluke
by Brian Klaas • 2024
Your brain evolved to hide chance from you. Chaos science reveals what you are missing.
4.06
4k+
🦋 Chaos Theory🔬 Complexity Science🧠 Cognitive Biases🧬 Evolutionary Psychology🎲 Historical Contingency
Fluke Summary
Fluke 94%
Your brain evolved to hide chance from you. Chaos science reveals what you are missing.
by Brian Klaas 2024
4.06
4k+ ratings
🦋 Chaos Theory🔬 Complexity Science🧠 Cognitive Biases🧬 Evolutionary Psychology🎲 Historical Contingency
May Contain Lies
by Alex Edmans • 2024
Why bad statistics and success stories feel convincing, and a systematic way to see through them.
4.11
1k+
🧠 Cognitive Biases🤔 Critical Thinking📰 Misinformation📊 Statistical Literacy🛒 Behavioral Economics
May Contain Lies Summary
May Contain Lies 94%
Why bad statistics and success stories feel convincing, and a systematic way to see through them.
by Alex Edmans 2024
4.11
1k+ ratings
🧠 Cognitive Biases🤔 Critical Thinking📰 Misinformation📊 Statistical Literacy🛒 Behavioral Economics
How to Actually Change Your Mind
by Eliezer Yudkowsky • 2018
Humble confession changes nothing. The specific moves that actually correct your thinking.
4.28
294
🧠 Cognitive Biases🎯 Rationality Training🙇 Epistemic Humility📊 Bayesian Reasoning🎭 Motivated Reasoning
How to Actually Change Your Mind Summary
How to Actually Change Your Mind 94%
Humble confession changes nothing. The specific moves that actually correct your thinking.
by Eliezer Yudkowsky 2018
4.28
294 ratings
🧠 Cognitive Biases🎯 Rationality Training🙇 Epistemic Humility📊 Bayesian Reasoning🎭 Motivated Reasoning
Investing
by Robert G. Hagstrom • 2000
Physics, biology, and psychology, woven together, give an investor an edge no financial model can.
4.13
1k+
🧠 Mental Models📈 Investment Philosophy🔗 Multidisciplinary Thinking🌐 Complexity Economics🎭 Behavioral Finance
Investing Summary
Investing 94%
Physics, biology, and psychology, woven together, give an investor an edge no financial model can.
by Robert G. Hagstrom 2000
4.13
1k+ ratings
🧠 Mental Models📈 Investment Philosophy🔗 Multidisciplinary Thinking🌐 Complexity Economics🎭 Behavioral Finance
A Survival Guide to the Misinformation Age
by David J. Helfand • 2016
Mental tools from science that let you gut-check any claim yourself, no search engine required.
3.71
220
🧪 Scientific Literacy🔍 Misinformation Defense🔢 Quantitative Reasoning🎲 Probability Thinking🔬 Scientific Method
A Survival Guide to the Misinformation Age Summary
A Survival Guide to the Misinformation Age 94%
Mental tools from science that let you gut-check any claim yourself, no search engine required.
by David J. Helfand 2016
3.71
220 ratings
🧪 Scientific Literacy🔍 Misinformation Defense🔢 Quantitative Reasoning🎲 Probability Thinking🔬 Scientific Method
Smart Choices
by John S. Hammond • 1998
The most expensive mistakes happen before you even name the problem. A method for catching them.
4.02
7k+
🧱 Decision Frameworks📊 Decision Analysis🧠 Cognitive Biases⚠️ Risk Analysis🔍 Problem Solving
Smart Choices Summary
Smart Choices 94%
The most expensive mistakes happen before you even name the problem. A method for catching them.
by John S. Hammond 1998
4.02
7k+ ratings
🧱 Decision Frameworks📊 Decision Analysis🧠 Cognitive Biases⚠️ Risk Analysis🔍 Problem Solving
A Field Guide to Lies and Statistics
by Daniel J. Levitin • 2016
How to spot the tricks in any graph, survey, or news report before they fool you.
3.76
5k+
🔍 Information Literacy💡 Critical Thinking🤔 Cognitive Biases🔬 Scientific Skepticism📊 Statistical Literacy
A Field Guide to Lies and Statistics Summary
A Field Guide to Lies and Statistics 94%
How to spot the tricks in any graph, survey, or news report before they fool you.
by Daniel J. Levitin 2016
3.76
5k+ ratings
🔍 Information Literacy💡 Critical Thinking🤔 Cognitive Biases🔬 Scientific Skepticism📊 Statistical Literacy
The Success Equation
by Michael J. Mauboussin • 2012
The ratio of skill to luck shapes every outcome. Most people misread it and pay dearly.
3.94
2k+
📈 Investment Strategy🔍 Decision Analysis🎲 Skill And Luck📊 Statistical Thinking🧠 Cognitive Biases
The Success Equation Summary
The Success Equation 94%
The ratio of skill to luck shapes every outcome. Most people misread it and pay dearly.
by Michael J. Mauboussin 2012
3.94
2k+ ratings
📈 Investment Strategy🔍 Decision Analysis🎲 Skill And Luck📊 Statistical Thinking🧠 Cognitive Biases
The Yellow Pad
by Robert E. Rubin • 2023
A yellow pad and honest odds: the method that steered Goldman Sachs and the White House.
3.70
268
📊 Decision Frameworks⚠️ Risk Management🎲 Thinking In Probabilities🧠 Cognitive Biases🚨 Crisis Leadership
The Yellow Pad Summary
The Yellow Pad 94%
A yellow pad and honest odds: the method that steered Goldman Sachs and the White House.
by Robert E. Rubin 2023
3.70
268 ratings
📊 Decision Frameworks⚠️ Risk Management🎲 Thinking In Probabilities🧠 Cognitive Biases🚨 Crisis Leadership
Thinking Fast and Slow in 30 Minutes - The Expert Guide to Daniel Kahneman's Critically Acclaimed Book
by The 30 Minute Expert Series • 2013
You jump to conclusions because you're wired to. Those jumps follow a script you can learn.
3.87
31
📉 Behavioral Economics🧩 Cognitive Biases🗺 Heuristics🔬 Dual Process Theory💸 Loss Aversion
Thinking Fast and Slow in 30 Minutes - The Expert Guide to Daniel Kahneman's Critically Acclaimed Book Summary
Thinking Fast and Slow in 30 Minutes - The Expert Guide to Daniel Kahneman's Critically Acclaimed Book 94%
You jump to conclusions because you're wired to. Those jumps follow a script you can learn.
by The 30 Minute Expert Series 2013
3.87
31 ratings
📉 Behavioral Economics🧩 Cognitive Biases🗺 Heuristics🔬 Dual Process Theory💸 Loss Aversion
Don't Believe Everything You Think
by Thomas Kida • 2006
Your brain hunts for stories, ignores stats, and rewrites its memories. Skepticism is the repair.
3.82
853
🧠 Cognitive Biases🔬 Scientific Skepticism💡 Critical Thinking🎲 Probability And Chance🧩 Memory Fallibility
Don't Believe Everything You Think Summary
Don't Believe Everything You Think 94%
Your brain hunts for stories, ignores stats, and rewrites its memories. Skepticism is the repair.
by Thomas Kida 2006
3.82
853 ratings
🧠 Cognitive Biases🔬 Scientific Skepticism💡 Critical Thinking🎲 Probability And Chance🧩 Memory Fallibility
How Spies Think
by David Omand • 2020
From a former GCHQ chief: how spies structure their thinking to outsmart lies and cognitive traps.
3.62
832
🕵️ Intelligence Analysis🧠 Cognitive Biases📢 Disinformation🌀 Conspiracy Thinking📈 Bayesian Reasoning
How Spies Think Summary
How Spies Think 94%
From a former GCHQ chief: how spies structure their thinking to outsmart lies and cognitive traps.
by David Omand 2020
3.62
832 ratings
🕵️ Intelligence Analysis🧠 Cognitive Biases📢 Disinformation🌀 Conspiracy Thinking📈 Bayesian Reasoning
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