Don't Trust Your Gut

1. Data-Driven Decisions Outperform Gut Feelings

You can make better life decisions. Big Data can help you.

Intuition's pitfalls. While gut feelings often guide us, they're prone to biases and misinformation. Big Data offers a more objective approach, revealing insights that can lead to better choices in various aspects of life.

Moneyball analogy. Just as Billy Beane revolutionized baseball by using data to identify undervalued players, we can apply data analysis to our personal lives. This involves examining large datasets to uncover patterns and insights that challenge conventional wisdom.

Examples of data-driven insights:

• Unconventional dating strategies can be more effective than traditional approaches.
• Certain neighborhoods offer better opportunities for children's success.
• Salespeople who limit their enthusiasm can be more persuasive.

By embracing a data-driven mindset, we can overcome our biases and make more informed decisions, leading to improved outcomes in our personal and professional lives.

2. Desirability Doesn't Equal Relationship Happiness

In the dating market, people compete ferociously for mates with qualities that do not increase one’s chances of romantic happiness.

The AI Marriage project. A large-scale study using machine learning found that demographics, preferences, and values have surprisingly little power in predicting relationship happiness. This challenges the conventional wisdom that shared interests or similar backgrounds are essential for a successful relationship.

Shiny qualities. Traits like physical attractiveness, height, and income are highly valued in the dating market but don't guarantee long-term happiness. Focusing on these "shiny qualities" can lead to disappointment.

Undervalued assets. Focusing on undervalued groups in the dating market, such as short men, extremely tall women, Asian men, and African-American women, can lead to less competition and a higher chance of finding a great partner. Qualities like satisfaction with life, secure attachment style, conscientiousness, and a growth mindset are more predictive of relationship happiness.

3. Neighborhoods Profoundly Shape a Child's Future

It takes a village to raise a child.

Neighborhood effects. Research shows that certain neighborhoods can dramatically improve a person's life outcomes, regardless of parental efforts. These neighborhoods aren't necessarily the most expensive or prestigious.

Opportunity Atlas. The Opportunity Atlas is a tool that maps the quality of every neighborhood in the United States, based on data from millions of tax records. It reveals that being raised in certain areas can significantly increase a child's income and reduce their likelihood of incarceration.

Key characteristics of successful neighborhoods:

• High percentage of college graduates
• High percentage of two-parent households
• High percentage of people who return their census forms

These factors suggest that the presence of positive adult role models and a strong sense of community are crucial for a child's development.

4. Passion + Hard Work > Innate Talent

Genes do not eliminate the need for hard work. They clarify it. They tell us what to work hard on.

The Sports Gene. While genetics play a significant role in athletic success, they don't determine everything. Some sports rely more on innate talent, while others offer opportunities for those with passion and dedication.

ScholarshipStats.com. This website provides data on the odds of getting a college scholarship for various sports. It reveals that some sports, like gymnastics and fencing, have a higher ratio of scholarships to athletes, making them potentially easier to break into.

Twins study. By analyzing the prevalence of identical twins in different sports, we can estimate the genetic contribution to success. Sports with fewer identical twins at the highest levels, such as equestrianism and diving, may offer more opportunities for those without exceptional genetic gifts.

Bruce Springsteen's daughter. Jessica Springsteen's success in equestrianism demonstrates that passion and hard work can overcome a lack of innate talent. By focusing on sports where dedication and training are more important than genetics, individuals can increase their chances of achieving athletic greatness.

5. Wealth Favors Business Owners in Specific Niches

It’s really boring. But every single day, we can make more and more money.

The rich own businesses. The majority of wealthy Americans are business owners, not salaried employees. Owning a business provides the potential for greater financial rewards than working for someone else.

The Get-Rich Chart. Certain industries offer a higher probability of wealth creation. These include real estate, investing, auto dealerships, independent creatives, market research, and middlemen.

Local monopolies. The most successful businesses often operate in niches where they can establish a local monopoly, limiting price competition and ensuring consistent profits. This can be achieved through legal protections, specialized knowledge, or strong branding.

The Get-Rich Checklist:

1. Do I own a business?
2. Does the business have a path to avoid ruthless price competition?
3. Does the business have a path to avoid being dominated by a global behemoth?

6. Experience and Age Trump Youthful Hype in Entrepreneurship

People under 35 are the people who make change happen . . . people over 45 basically die in terms of new ideas.

The myth of the young founder. The media often portrays successful entrepreneurs as young prodigies, but data reveals a different story. The average age of a successful entrepreneur is 42.

The Insider's Advantage. Entrepreneurs with prior experience in their industry are more likely to succeed. This experience provides valuable knowledge, skills, and networks.

The Power of the Marginal. The idea that people who have failed a lot can actually have an edge in entrepreneurship is a myth. The conventionally successful massively outperform other employees as entrepreneurs.

Tony Fadell's story. Fadell's success with Nest Labs demonstrates the value of experience and expertise. He spent years honing his skills at General Magic, Philips Electronics, and Apple before striking out on his own.

7. Luck Can Be Hacked Through Strategic Action

seems replete with luck.

Luck is a random number. While luck plays a role in success, it's not the sole determinant. Successful people and organizations are better at capitalizing on the opportunities that come their way.

The Formula. There are patterns underlying luck. By adopting certain strategies, we can increase our chances of experiencing fortunate events.

Springsteen's Rule. Travel widely to find your break. By exposing yourself to new environments and opportunities, you increase the likelihood of stumbling upon a lucky connection or discovery.

Picasso's Rule. Put more work out there to let luck find you. The more you create and share, the greater the chances of your work resonating with someone who can help you succeed.

8. Happiness Requires Active Choices, Not Passive Consumption

A human mind is a wandering mind, and a wandering mind is an unhappy mind.

The Mappiness project. This project uses smartphone technology to collect data on people's happiness levels in different situations. It reveals that certain activities are consistently associated with greater well-being.

Underrated activities. Activities like going to museums, exercising, gardening, and shopping tend to make people happier than they realize. These activities often require effort and engagement.

Overrated activities. Activities like sleeping, relaxing, playing computer games, watching TV, and browsing the internet tend to provide less happiness than people expect. These passive activities can be tempting but ultimately unsatisfying.

The data-driven answer to life: be with your love, on an 80-degree and sunny day, overlooking a beautiful body of water, having sex.

9. Modern Life Presents Happiness Traps

Everything is amazing, and nobody is happy.

The paradox of progress. Despite advancements in technology and living standards, happiness levels haven't increased significantly. This suggests that modern life may contain traps that hinder our well-being.

The Work Trap. Work is often a source of misery, but it can be made more tolerable by listening to music, working from home, and collaborating with friends.

The "Not Spending Enough Time with Friends and Romantic Partner" Trap. We are happier when we are with our romantic partners and close friends.

The Social Media Trap. Social media can decrease happiness by exposing us to weak ties and promoting social comparison.

The Sports Trap. Being a passionate sports fan can lead to more pain than pleasure, as losses tend to hurt more than wins feel good.

The Booze Trap. Alcohol can provide a temporary mood boost, but it's important to use it wisely and avoid addiction.

Last updated: August 5, 2025