Numbers Don't Lie

1. Numbers Demand Context: Raw data misleads without historical and international comparison.

To understand what is really going on in our world, next we must set the numbers in the appropriate contexts: historical and international.

Context is paramount. Vaclav Smil argues that raw numbers, especially those found on the internet, are often misleading without proper context. He emphasizes the need for both historical and international comparisons to truly grasp the significance of data. For instance, knowing France's per capita energy use in 1880 (35 gigajoules) makes Nigeria's current 35 gigajoules per capita starkly illustrate a two-lifetime developmental gap, rather than just a contemporary difference.

Beyond surface figures. Many statistics, like GDP, can be manipulated or misinterpreted. French GDP in 2010 could be US $2.6 trillion, but was it in current or constant monies? Was the conversion from euros to dollars done using the prevailing exchange rate or purchasing power parity? These details fundamentally alter the meaning. Smil advocates for scientific literacy and numeracy, encouraging readers to engage with numbers by estimating and comparing orders of magnitude in daily life, like the weight difference between a baby and an Airbus A380.

Qualitative differences matter. Numbers alone cannot capture all realities, especially in areas like food preferences. While carbohydrate and protein content might be similar, the qualitative difference between a pre-sliced American supermarket bread and a French maître boulanger's display is immense. True comprehension requires combining quantitative data with an understanding of these qualitative nuances, ensuring that the "truth they convey" is fully understood.

2. Fundamental Progress is Slow: Core systems evolve at a glacial pace, unlike digital tech.

Energy, material, and transportation fundamentals that enable the functioning of modern civilization and that circumscribe its scope of action are improving steadily but slowly.

Moore's Law is an anomaly. While microchip density doubles every two years, leading to rapid advancements in electronics, this exponential growth rate is not typical for most other critical sectors. Smil calls this "Moore's Curse," as it creates unrealistic expectations for progress in areas like food production, energy generation, and transportation. These foundational sectors improve at rates an order of magnitude slower, typically 1.5% to 3% annually.

Slow, steady improvements. Consider these examples of gradual progress:

• Crop Yields: US corn yields have risen by 2% annually since 1950; China's rice yields by 1.6% over 50 years.
• Energy Efficiency: Steam turbogenerator efficiency increased by 1.5% annually in the 20th century.
• Lighting Efficacy: Lumens per watt for indoor lights rose by 2.6% annually between 1881 and 2014.
• Vehicle Fuel Efficiency: New US passenger cars improved by just 2.5% annually between 1973 and 2014.
• Travel Speed: Jetliner speeds have been essentially constant since the Boeing 707 in 1958.

The long haul of energy transitions. Decarbonizing the global energy supply, for instance, is a monumental task that cannot follow Moore's Law. Despite decades of climate conventions, fossil fuels still supplied 85.1% of primary energy in 2017, a mere 1.5% reduction in 25 years. This highlights that displacing billions of tons of fossil carbon is a multi-decade challenge, fundamentally different from ramping up cellphone sales.

3. The 1880s: A Decade of Foundational Inventions That Still Power Our World.

Have any two sets of primary inventions and epochal discoveries shaped the modern world more than electricity and internal combustion engines?

A miraculous decade. The 1880s were arguably the most inventive period in human history, laying the groundwork for much of our modern civilization. Many fundamental technologies we rely on daily originated or saw critical advancements during this time, far surpassing the incremental innovations of the digital age. Without these 19th-century breakthroughs, our "e-world" would be impossible.

Pillars of modernity. Key inventions and discoveries from the 1880s include:

• Electricity: First power plants, durable lightbulbs, and transformers (1882).
• Internal Combustion Engines: Gasoline-fueled engines by Benz, Maybach, and Daimler (1886), leading to diesel and gas turbines.
• Electromagnetic Waves: Heinrich Hertz's experiments (1880s) proved their existence, enabling wireless communication.
• Modern Bicycle: Equal-sized wheels and chain drive (1885).
• Skyscrapers: First steel-skeleton skyscraper (1885).
• Everyday items: Maxwell House coffee (1886), Aunt Jemima pancakes (1889), electric iron (1882), ballpoint pen (1888), Coca-Cola (1886).

Enduring impact. Many daily experiences are still shaped by these "mundane artifacts and actions." From electric streetcars to revolving doors, the infrastructure and conveniences of modern life owe a profound debt to this single decade. Smil laments that people, lost in ephemeral tweets, are often unaware of the true scope of this quotidian legacy.

4. Quality of Life: Beyond GDP, infant mortality and longevity reveal deeper truths.

My own choice of a single-variable measure for rapid and revealing comparisons of quality of life is infant mortality: the number of deaths during the first year of life that take place per 1,000 live births.

GDP is a flawed metric. While economists often rely on GDP per capita or disposable income to gauge quality of life, these measures are questionable. GDP can rise due to negative events like increased crime or pollution, and average income hides economic inequality. The Human Development Index (HDI) is better but still correlates highly with GDP, making it similarly limited.

Infant mortality: a powerful indicator. Smil champions infant mortality as a superior single-variable measure because low rates are impossible without a combination of critical conditions:

• Good healthcare (prenatal, perinatal, neonatal)
• Proper maternal and infant nutrition
• Adequate and sanitary living conditions
• Access to social support for disadvantaged families
• Relevant government and private spending on infrastructure.

US exceptionalism debunked. The US, despite its wealth, does not rank among the top 25 nations for infant mortality (6 deaths per 1,000 live births), lagging behind countries like France (4), Germany (3), and even Greece (4). Similarly, US life expectancy (79 years) is not in the top two dozen globally, behind Canada (82) and Japan (84). These numbers challenge notions of "American exceptionalism" in areas that truly reflect citizen well-being, pointing instead to issues like economic inequality and lack of universal healthcare.

5. Energy Transitions: Decarbonization is a monumental, slow-moving challenge.

Can a marginal slip of 1.5 percent in a quarter-century be followed in the coming 25–30 years with the substitution of some 80 percent of the world’s primary energy for non-carbon alternatives, in order to come close to zero fossil carbon by 2050?

The slow pace of change. Despite growing concerns about global warming and international agreements like the Paris Agreement, the world's energy supply remains fundamentally dependent on fossil carbon. Between 1992 (the first UN Climate Change Convention) and 2017, fossil fuels' share of global primary energy decreased by a mere 1.5%, from 86.6% to 85.1%. This marginal shift underscores the immense difficulty of decarbonization.

Renewables' limited impact. While wind and solar electricity generation have seen impressive growth, their overall contribution to global energy decarbonization is still small. In 2017, they supplied only 4.5% of the world's electricity, meaning hydroelectricity contributed more to decarbonization during that 25-year period. Furthermore, electricity accounts for only about 27% of final energy consumption, so even rapid electrification has a limited impact on overall carbon reduction.

No easy substitutes. Several key economic sectors heavily rely on fossil fuels with no readily available, mass-scale non-carbon alternatives:

• Long-distance transportation: Jetliners, container ships, trucks, and freight trains.
• Industrial production: Steel (requiring coal coke), cement (fired by low-quality fossil fuels), ammonia, and plastics (derived from natural gas and crude oil).
• Space heating: Dominated by natural gas in colder climates.
  Achieving zero fossil carbon by 2050 would require an unprecedented transformation of the global economy, likely leading to major economic and social dislocations, especially for billions still striving to escape poverty.

6. Food Waste: An Inexcusable Global Tragedy Amidst Abundance.

The world is wasting food on a scale that must be described as excessive, inexcusable, and, given all of our other concerns about the state of the global environment and quality of human life, outright incomprehensible.

Massive global losses. At least one-third of all harvested food globally is wasted, according to the UN's Food and Agricultural Organization. This ranges from 40-50% for root crops, fruits, and vegetables, to 20% for meat and dairy. In poorer countries, waste occurs due to poor storage and lack of refrigeration, while in affluent nations, it's primarily due to overproduction and excessive consumption.

American excess. The United States is a prime example, with an average daily food supply of 3,600 kilocalories per person, far exceeding actual consumption needs (around 2,100 kcal/person). This means about 40% of American food goes to waste, enough to adequately feed 230 million people (more than Brazil's population). This waste has increased by 50% between 1974 and 2005, contributing to rising obesity rates (74% of US adult males are overweight or obese).

Beyond nutrition. Food waste has significant environmental and economic costs:

• Resource depletion: Wasted labor, energy (for machinery, irrigation, fertilizers, pesticides), and water.
• Environmental damage: Soil erosion, nitrate leaching, biodiversity loss, antibiotic-resistant bacteria.
• Greenhouse gas emissions: Up to 10% of global emissions are linked to producing wasted food.
  Reducing food waste by half could yield a 14-fold return on investment in associated benefits. Smil questions why societies prioritize speculative innovations over practical solutions like reducing food waste, which offers clear, immediate, and substantial gains.

7. Demographic Shifts: Declining fertility and aging populations reshape nations.

By 2050, nearly three-quarters of humanity will reside in countries with below-replacement fertility.

The global fertility decline. The total fertility rate (TFR)—children born per woman—has plummeted globally. While pre-industrial societies saw TFRs of 7-8, and some sub-Saharan African nations still have high rates (Niger at 7.5), most of the world now experiences moderate to extremely low fertility. This shift is driven by rising living standards, urbanization, female labor force participation, education, healthcare, and government pensions, turning the pursuit of "quantity" (many children) into a quest for "quality" (investing more in fewer children).

Rapid transitions. While countries like Denmark and Sweden took centuries to transition to low fertility, South Korea achieved it in 30 years, and Iran, surprisingly, dropped from 6.5 TFR in 1979 to replacement level by 2000. The replacement level is about 2.1 children per woman, but no country has managed to stop the decline there. Once TFR slips below 1.5 (e.g., Spain, Italy, Japan at 1.3-1.4 in 2019), reversals become increasingly unlikely.

Profound implications. These demographic shifts have enormous consequences:

• Population decline: Japan's population is projected to shrink from 127 million to 97 million by 2050, with nearly 40% over 65.
• Aging societies: By 2050, people over 80 in Japan will outnumber children, creating labor shortages in critical sectors like healthcare and infrastructure.
• Geopolitical shifts: Europe's share of world population fell from 18% in 1900 to 9.5% in 2020, while Asia ascended (60%), and Africa will account for 75% of all births between 2020-2070.
  Pro-natalist policies have largely failed, leaving immigration as the only obvious option to prevent depopulation in many countries, though this remains politically challenging.

8. Innovation's Reality Check: Grand failures and overlooked practical solutions.

This uncritical genuflection before the altar of innovation is wrong on two counts: It ignores those big, fundamental quests that have failed after spending huge sums on research. And it has little to say about why we so often stick to an inferior practice even when we know there’s a superior course of action.

The illusion of constant breakthroughs. Modern societies are obsessed with innovation, often believing it will solve all problems, from eternal life to free energy. However, Smil argues this overlooks two critical aspects: the failure of costly, fundamental quests and our reluctance to adopt known superior practices.

Costly failures and receding promises:

• Fast breeder reactors: Billions spent, yet no commercial payoff after six decades, despite 1970s predictions of supplying 90% of US electricity by 2000.
• Hydrogen fuel cell cars, maglev trains, thermonuclear energy: Still not commercial realities after decades of promises. Thermonuclear energy is "perhaps the most notorious example of an ever-receding innovative achievement."

Ignoring practical improvements. We often cling to inferior practices despite knowing better:

• Daylight saving time: Continues despite evidence it doesn't save energy.
• Airplane boarding: Takes longer than in the 1970s, despite known faster methods (e.g., reverse pyramid, alternate boarding).
• GDP as a metric: Still worshipped for economic progress, even though it rises from negative events like increased crime or environmental destruction.
  Smil questions why we speculate about "wild and crazy innovations" but neglect practical, implementable solutions. He suggests improving plane boarding rather than deluding ourselves with visions of hyperloop trains and eternal life.

9. The Environmental Cost of Everything: From "Green" Tech to Daily Devices.

For a long time to come—until all energies used to produce wind turbines and photovoltaic cells come from renewable energy sources—modern civilization will remain fundamentally dependent on fossil fuels.

Hidden fossil fuel dependence. Even "green" technologies like wind turbines and photovoltaic (PV) cells are "pure embodiments of fossil fuels" in their production, installation, and maintenance. The materials and processes involved require vast amounts of energy derived from fossil sources. For example:

• Wind turbines: Steel (150-500 tons per 5MW turbine) requires coke from coal, powdered coal, and natural gas for smelting. Blades (15 tons each) use glass-fiber-reinforced epoxy or polyester resins, derived from naphtha, LPG, or natural gas.
• PV cells: While their operating cost is low, their production is energy-intensive.
  Until the entire supply chain for these technologies is powered by renewables, they remain indirectly reliant on fossil fuels, challenging the narrative of immediate decarbonization.

The embodied energy of consumer goods. Everything we own and use carries an "embodied energy" cost. While a car (1.4 tons) obviously embodies more energy than a smartphone (140 grams), the gap is surprisingly smaller than the mass difference suggests. New cars (75 million sold annually) embody about 7 exajoules of energy, while the annual production of portable electronics (1.75 billion phones, 250 million computing devices) requires about 1 exajoule.

Lifetime environmental footprint. Considering product lifespans, the annual production of portable electronics (average 2-year lifespan) embodies about 0.5 exajoules per year of use. Passenger cars (average 10-year lifespan) embody about 0.7 exajoules per year of use. This means the environmental footprint of producing all portable electronics is surprisingly comparable to that of producing all new cars annually. Smil emphasizes that a smartphone is useless without a network, and the energy cost of electrifying and maintaining that network is high and rising, adding to the aggregate environmental footprint.

10. Empires Rise and Fall: A Historical Reminder of Transient Power.

Keeping an empire, be it a real one (with an emperor or an empress) or a de facto one (defined by economic and military might and sustained by the projection of power and by shifting alliances), has never been easy.

The fleeting nature of power. Smil examines the lifespans of empires, noting that despite increasing military, technical, and economic capabilities, keeping large empires for extended periods has become more difficult over time. Ancient empires like Mesopotamian Elam lasted ten centuries, but modern empires are far shorter-lived.

Historical examples of imperial longevity:

• Ancient Empires (3000 BCE - 600 CE): Mean duration of 220 years.
• Spanish Empire: Just over three centuries (1492-1810).
• British Empire: Arguably 356 years (1604-1960).
• Soviet Empire: 74 years and a month (1917-1991), a single average European male lifetime.
• Japanese Imperial Expansion: Almost exactly 14 years (1931-1945).
• Germany's Third Reich: 12 years and 3 months (1933-1945).

The "American Empire" and China's challenge. Smil questions the duration and even the existence of an "American empire," noting that post-WWII conflicts have been costly defeats or stalemates, and many supposed allies show little inclination to follow. He points to China's Communist Party, which celebrated 70 years of rule in 2019, as a contemporary example facing imperial challenges. Its policies in Tibet and Xinjiang, overreaching in the South China Sea, and "Silk Road" investments in poorer nations are attempts to buy long-term influence.

Lessons for the future. Given the history of modern imperial longevity, Smil rhetorically asks about the odds of the Chinese Communist Party still being around in another 70 years. The historical record suggests that even the mightiest powers eventually recede, offering a sobering perspective on the transient nature of dominance.

Last updated: October 27, 2025