Deeply Divided

1. Postwar America: A Unique Era of Bipartisan Consensus and Equality

If the last annual value in each of the two figures represents the peak—or near peak—in the overall time series, the values for the quarter century from 1940 to 1965 represent the clear valley in both distributions.

A stark contrast. The period from 1940 to 1965 stands as an anomaly in American history, characterized by unprecedented bipartisan consensus in Congress and remarkably low levels of economic inequality. This era, often romanticized, was a stark inverse of today's deeply divided and unequal society.

Roots of consensus. This unique political landscape emerged from several factors:

• Depression's aftermath: The electoral fallout from the Great Depression led to Democratic dominance and a moderation of Republican views.
• World War II unity: The wartime emergency fostered national unity, dampening partisan divisions.
• "National mission" of inclusion: The Cold War compelled the U.S. to address racial discrimination, leading to bipartisan support for civil rights reform and a gradual expansion of the welfare state, even under Republican President Eisenhower.

Absence of movements. Crucially, this period was marked by a conspicuous absence of significant social movement activity, largely due to the "chilling effect" of the Cold War and McCarthyism. This quiescence spared both major parties the centrifugal pressures that typically push them towards ideological extremes, allowing them to converge on the moderate center and foster bipartisan cooperation.

2. The 1960s: Race Shatters the Consensus and Reshapes Party Alignments

To wit: the collapse of the postwar consensus had everything to do with race and much less to do with the issues—Vietnam, sexism, cultural liberation—that defined the later years of the period.

Racial fault lines. The relative calm of the postwar era was irrevocably shattered in the 1960s, primarily by the re-emergence of racial conflict. The revitalized Civil Rights Movement and the subsequent "white resistance" countermovement acted as powerful centrifugal forces, pushing the Democratic and Republican parties in opposite ideological directions.

Democrats shift left. The relentless pressure of the Civil Rights Movement, exemplified by events like the 1960 sit-ins and the Birmingham campaign, forced Democratic administrations (Kennedy and Johnson) to abandon their accommodation of Southern segregationists. This led to landmark legislation like the 1964 Civil Rights Act, but at the cost of alienating the party's Southern wing and fracturing the New Deal coalition.

Republicans shift right. Simultaneously, a "white resistance" countermovement, initially Southern but spreading nationwide as "white backlash," began to push the Republican Party rightward. Figures like George Wallace, with his strong showings in Northern primaries, demonstrated the electoral potential of racial reaction. This shift was further solidified by the Draft Goldwater Movement and Nixon's "Southern Strategy" in 1968, which aimed to capture disaffected white voters by subtly appealing to racial grievances.

3. The 1970s: A Quiet Revolution Empowers Movements and Polarizes Parties

If the 1960s marked the return of social movements as a consequential force in American politics, a little-remembered institutional revolution engineered by New Left activists between 1968 and 1972 would dramatically increase the structural leverage available to future grass-roots movements.

The primaries revolution. The 1970s, often seen as a muddled interlude, were pivotal due to a "quiet revolution" within the Democratic Party. New Left activists, frustrated by the party establishment's unresponsiveness (e.g., Humphrey's 1968 nomination), orchestrated reforms to the presidential nominating process. These reforms, spearheaded by the McGovern Commission, dramatically expanded the use of binding popular primaries and caucuses.

Empowering the extremes. This institutional shift had profound, often ironic, consequences:

• Marginalized elites: The reforms significantly reduced the power of traditional party bosses and elites.
• Amplified movement voices: With low voter turnout in primaries, the system inadvertently empowered ideologically extreme, mobilized movement activists who were more likely to participate.
• Demographic shift: The 1972 Democratic Convention, for example, saw a threefold increase in female and black delegates, and a sevenfold increase in young delegates, reflecting the New Left's influence.

Anti-establishment politics. The anti-establishment sentiment of the post-Watergate era, combined with the new primary system, allowed outsiders like Jimmy Carter (1976) and Ronald Reagan (1976 primary challenge) to gain unprecedented traction. Carter's victory, fueled by white Southern and evangelical support, temporarily reclaimed the South for Democrats, while Reagan's challenge to Ford showcased the growing power of conservative movements like the Christian Right and the burgeoning tax revolt.

4. Reagan's Rise: Conservative Movements Remake the Republican Party

By the end of Reagan’s term in office, the once “solid [Democratic] South” had become the most loyal regional component of the Republican coalition, at least in general elections.

A movement-driven ascent. Ronald Reagan's path to the presidency was profoundly shaped by the growing influence of conservative social movements. His 1976 primary challenge to Gerald Ford, though unsuccessful, transformed his image and demonstrated the power of the party's right wing.

The 1980 coalition. Reagan's decisive 1980 victory was built on a powerful hybrid of movement-party politics, uniting:

• Pro-life movement: Attracted by Reagan's strong opposition to Roe v. Wade, a shift from their conflicted support for Carter in 1976.
• Christian Right: Mobilized by leaders like Jerry Falwell (Moral Majority), evangelicals abandoned Carter, viewing him as having betrayed their social conservative values during his presidency. Reagan actively courted this group, cementing their allegiance to the GOP.
• Nationwide tax revolt: Inspired by California's Proposition 13 (1978), anti-tax activists enthusiastically backed Reagan's anti-big government platform.
• White racial conservatives: Reagan masterfully used coded language (e.g., "states' rights" at the Neshoba County Fair) to appeal to the heirs of the Wallace movement, solidifying the white South's shift to the Republican Party.

Remaking the GOP. Reagan's success in integrating these diverse conservative movements effectively remade the Republican Party, transforming it from its moderate postwar incarnation into the overwhelmingly white, racially and socially conservative force it largely remains today. This process marginalized the party's moderate wing and set the stage for future ideological polarization.

5. The "Slow-Release" Reagan Revolution: Modest in Office, Profound After

If it makes sense to speak of a Reagan revolution—and we think it does—it is a revolution that has owed, in our view, much more to long-term trends set in motion by his administration than to the immediate policy impacts that flowed from his eight years in office.

A complex legacy. While Ronald Reagan is often hailed as a transformative president, his immediate impact on policy was surprisingly modest. His "revolution" began with a bang in his first year, with deep cuts to social programs and the Economic Recovery Tax Act (ERTA) slashing the top marginal tax rate from 70% to 50%.

Short-term limitations. However, this initial legislative success was not sustained:

• Economic realities: Supply-side economics failed to deliver, leading to soaring deficits and forcing Reagan to approve significant tax increases in 1982 and 1984.
• Bipartisan opposition: Reagan faced a Democratic-controlled House and opposition from moderate Republicans, limiting further cuts to social programs.
• "Teflon president": Despite policy reversals and scandals like Iran-Contra, Reagan maintained personal popularity, but his administration's legislative output beyond the first year was limited.

Long-term transformation. The true "Reagan Revolution" unfolded after he left office, as his ideas progressively redefined the boundaries of acceptable federal policy. His rhetoric demonized high taxes and social programs, establishing a "Reagan policy regime" that would constrain future administrations, including Democrats, to adopt more conservative fiscal stances.

6. Reagan's Enduring Legacy: Widening Inequality Across American Life

Indeed, much of our focus in the book— highlighted in the first half of this chapter—has been on the evolution of a distinctive Republican politics of inequality, advanced somewhat haphazardly by Nixon, far more systematically under Reagan, and essentially institutionalized in the years since Reagan left office.

The politics of inequality. Reagan's lasting influence is most evident in the dramatic increase in inequality across various aspects of American life, a trend that accelerated after his presidency. His administration's policies, particularly the tax cuts, reversed decades of narrowing gaps in wealth and income.

Economic hyper-concentration. The Piketty and Saez data show income inequality growing more rapidly after Reagan left office. The gains were hyper-concentrated at the very top:

• Top 1%: Nearly tripled their average income.
• Top 0.01%: Earned almost seven times more than their counterparts three decades prior.
• Bottom 90%: Experienced stagnant real wages.
  This trend made the U.S. an outlier among advanced economies, a shift not fully explained by globalization or skill-based technological change, but by deliberate state policy.

Compounding disadvantages. This economic divide translated into widening disparities in other crucial areas:

• Health disparities: Class-related health inequities (mortality, life expectancy, infant mortality) significantly increased from the mid-1970s, mirroring economic trends. Economic disadvantage directly impacts access to healthcare and insurance.
• Educational inequality: Schools, traditionally seen as equalizers, now magnify class disparities. The income achievement gap doubled since 1975, and access to and completion of higher education became increasingly skewed towards affluent families, exacerbating existing inequalities.

7. The Obama Years: Unprecedented Polarization Fueled by the Tea Party

And yet, when it comes to party polarization and government dysfunction, we contend that all of them pale in comparison to the acrimony, bitterness, and willful sabotage of policymaking that has characterized Barack Obama’s time in office.

A new level of division. The Obama presidency, despite a civil start and significant legislative achievements in its first two years, quickly devolved into an era of unprecedented partisan acrimony and governmental dysfunction, surpassing even previous periods of intense political crisis.

The Tea Party's rise. The emergence of the Tea Party movement in 2009, fueled by anger at federal bailouts and "big government," became a pivotal force:

• Grassroots and elite-backed: A blend of spontaneous grassroots activism, funding from right-wing elites, and conservative media amplification.
• Electoral impact: The Tea Party significantly contributed to the Democrats' massive losses in the 2010 midterm elections, allowing Republicans to regain control of the House.
• "Rightward lunge": The influx of Tea Party-aligned freshmen pushed the Republican House delegation further to the right than ever before, as evidenced by Bonica's ideological mapping.

Willful obstruction. This radicalized GOP, particularly in the House, adopted a strategy of deliberate obstruction and legislative brinksmanship:

• Debt ceiling crises: Republicans repeatedly held the debt ceiling hostage (2011, 2013) to extract concessions, threatening government default and leading to an S&P credit downgrade.
• Misuse of procedures: The filibuster was weaponized to delay and obstruct routine legislation and executive appointments, even for unopposed candidates, effectively impeding the implementation of laws like the Affordable Care Act.
• Intramural warfare: The 2013 government shutdown, aimed at dismantling the ACA, exposed open conflict between Tea Party activists (e.g., Ted Cruz) and the more traditional Republican establishment, highlighting the movement's ideological purity over pragmatic governance.

8. America's Democratic Crisis: Minority Rule, Money, and Suppressed Voices

Representational biases of this magnitude call into question the very democratic character of our society.

Erosion of political equality. The extreme polarization and inequality have severely compromised the foundational democratic principle of political equality, where every citizen's voice should count equally. Instead, the U.S. is increasingly characterized by minority rule and suppressed electoral voices.

Marginalizing the majority. Centrist majority views are consistently overridden by extreme ideological minorities:

• Gun control: Despite strong public support for stricter laws (e.g., post-Sandy Hook), Congress fails to act.
• Immigration reform: A bipartisan Senate bill with broad public backing is stalled by the House GOP.
• Abortion rights: State-level legislation, driven by conservative movements, drastically restricts access despite moderate public opinion.

Subverting the process. This is compounded by intentional efforts to undermine democratic mechanisms:

• Legislative paralysis: The 112th and 113th Congresses were the least productive in modern history, a direct result of partisan obstruction and a "wrecking" strategy.
• Restricting electoral voice: Republican-led efforts to pass restrictive voter ID laws and limit early voting disproportionately target Democratic-leaning minority and low-income voters. The Supreme Court's 2013 Shelby County v. Holder decision further enables these efforts.
• Felon disenfranchisement: Harsh laws disproportionately affect racial minorities, effectively suppressing a significant bloc of potential Democratic votes.
• Gerrymandering: The deliberate redrawing of electoral districts creates "safe" seats, reducing competition, muting voter voice, and empowering ideologically extreme primary voters who face no general election threat.

Money's corrupting influence. Economic inequality translates directly into political inequality, as vast sums of money from wealthy individuals and corporations distort the political system:

• "Fund-Raising Congress": Elected officials spend excessive time fundraising, becoming dependent on donors and lobbyists, rather than "the People alone."
• Judicial endorsement: The Supreme Court's Citizens United decision (2010) equated money with free speech and corporations with people, removing limits on political spending and exacerbating the problem.
• Regulatory paralysis: The Federal Election Commission (FEC) is rendered ineffective by partisan appointments, preventing enforcement of existing campaign finance laws.

9. Restoring Democracy: Reclaiming Political Equality and Shared Citizenship

What is needed now is a centripetal movement to reclaim and reinvigorate the political middle and repair our badly frayed democracy.

A crisis of legitimacy. The cumulative effect of political inequality, legislative paralysis, and the corrupting influence of money has led to a severe legitimacy crisis. Public trust in government is at an all-time low, with large majorities feeling unheard, frustrated, and even angry. This erosion of mutual trust and respect threatens the very foundation of democratic self-governance.

Reforms for political equality. Restoring American democracy requires a multi-faceted approach focused on re-democratizing the electoral system:

• Campaign finance reform:

  • Overturn Citizens United: Challenge the legal premise that money equals free speech.
  • Strengthen disclosure and separation: Enforce stringent laws requiring transparency in donations and clear separation between PACs/expenditure groups and campaigns.
  • Public financing: Implement "clean money" or "voter-owned" election systems to reduce reliance on wealthy donors.
  • Revitalize the FEC: Restore the Federal Election Commission's independence and ability to enforce existing laws.

• Electoral system reforms:

  • Combat voter suppression: Vigilantly challenge restrictive voting laws that target specific demographic groups.
  • Reform felon disenfranchisement: Align U.S. laws with other Western democracies to restore voting rights to ex-convicts.
  • End gerrymandering: Establish independent, nonpartisan redistricting commissions to ensure fair and competitive electoral districts.
  • Abolish the Electoral College: Empower every registered voter equally in presidential elections, rather than concentrating influence in a few "battleground" states.
  • Increase voter turnout: Consider compulsory voting (like Australia) or expand open primaries with preference voting to encourage broader participation and temper ideological extremism.

A centripetal movement. Ultimately, addressing these deep divisions requires a "centripetal movement" – a grassroots effort to reclaim the political middle, foster shared citizenship, and compel elected officials to prioritize common ground over partisan animosity. This means moving beyond the current "us/them" mentality and rebuilding the minimal mutual trust and respect essential for a functioning democracy.